More Americans Have Chronic Pain Than Ever Before

By Pat Anson

Rates of chronic pain and high-impact pain have risen sharply in the United States since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is likely due to an increase in sedentary lifestyles, anxiety and reduced access to healthcare.

In a study preprinted in medRxiv, researchers estimate that 60 million Americans in 2023 had chronic pain, up from 50 million in 2019. The study is based on results from 2019, 2021 and 2023 National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) of a nationally representative sample of about 88,500 U.S. adults.

Caution is warranted when research is preprinted before undergoing peer-review, but the findings here are startling. Rates of chronic pain (CP) rose from 20.6% in 2019 (before the pandemic), to 20.9% in 2021, and surged to 24.3% in 2023.

High impact chronic pain (HICP), which is pain strong enough to limit daily life and work activity, rose from 7.5% of adults in 2019 to 8.5% in 2023. That translates to 21 million Americans living with debilitating pain.

“Chronic pain and high-impact chronic pain surged dramatically after the COVID pandemic. The widely-cited 20% prevalence of CP in the adult US population appears obsolete,” wrote co-authors Anna Zajacova, PhD, at Western University in Ontario and Hanna Grol-Prokopczyk, PhD, at the University of Buffalo.

“Our findings indicated that chronic pain, already a widespread issue, has reached new heights in the post-pandemic era, necessitating urgent attention and intervention strategies to address and alleviate this growing health crisis.”

The increases in pain occurred in almost all body areas, such as the head, abdomen, back, arms, hands, hips, knees and feet, except for jaw and dental pain. All age groups and both sexes were affected.  

SOURCE: medRxiv

Researchers say being infected with COVID or having long COVID played a significant role in the increases, but social and economic causes may have also been at work. Pain could have worsened due to anxiety, depression, loneliness, physical inactivity and reduced access to health care, as well as inflation and economic hardships caused by the pandemic.

“The 2023 surge is not restricted to specific demographics or body sites — it is widespread across the population subgroups and affects all examined pain sites except jaw/dental pain. Further, the increase persisted even after accounting for potential drivers such as COVID-19 infections, socioeconomic factors, and other potentially important covariates such as mental health or health behaviors. This suggests that a broader, more complex set of factors may be at play,” researchers reported.

“Thus, while the viral infections certainly had an impact, other societal and lifestyle changes that occurred during and after the pandemic may have contributed to the increase in pain. The role of increased social isolation and loneliness, disrupted health care access, and heightened levels of stress and anxiety, all of which were exacerbated by the pandemic, should be explored in future research.”

Although chronic pain rates have surged over the last few years, there has been little response from healthcare providers and regulators. In fact, the just opposite happening. The Food and Drug Administration predicted a 7.9% decline in medical need for opioid pain medication in 2024, and anticipates a 6.6% decrease in demand next year.

The Drug Enforcement Administration uses those FDA estimates when setting its annual production quotas for opioids, which have fallen for eight straight years. Since 2015, the supply of oxycodone has been reduced by over 68% and hydrocodone by nearly 73%.

Many pain patients feel like they’ve been abandoned by the healthcare system, according to a 2023 PNN survey of nearly 3,000 patients or caregivers. About one in five patients have been unable to find a doctor to treat their pain, and 12% say they were abandoned or discharged by a doctor. Many are now hoarding opioid medication or turning to other substances for relief.

Those findings from our survey are now being reflected in the study on rising pain rates.

“The findings are a call to action for public health professionals, policymakers, and researchers to further investigate the root causes of this increase. Addressing the rise in chronic pain is critical, as pain serves as a sensitive barometer of population health and has profound economic, social, and health consequences,” said Zajacova and Hanna Grol-Prokopczyk.

Long COVID Risk Declining, Mostly Due to Vaccinations

By Crystal Lindell

Rates of Long Covid appear to have declined over the course of the pandemic, according to new research from the Washington University School of Medicine. One reason is that people who are vaccinated against COVID-19 and its variants have about half the risk of developing Long Covid than those who are unvaccinated.

Long Covid refers to a wide range of symptoms that some people experience four or more weeks after an initial infection with COVID-19. Symptoms such as fatigue, body pain and shortness of breath may last for weeks, months or years, and can be mild or severe.  

While the new research only looked at COVID cases through 2022 – making it unclear how newer COVID strains and vaccines in 2023 and 2024 may be impacting Long COVID cases  – it does provide a ray of hope.

Specifically, researchers attributed about 70% of the risk reduction to vaccination against COVID-19 and 30% to changes over time, such as the evolving characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and improved detection and management of COVID-19. The research was published in The New England Journal of Medicine.

“The research on declining rates of long COVID marks the rare occasion when I have good news to report regarding this virus,” said the study’s senior author, Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, a Washington University clinical epidemiologist and global leader in COVID-19 research. “The findings also show the positive effects of getting vaccinated.”

Although the latest findings sound more reassuring than previous studies, Al-Aly tempered the good news. 

“Long COVID is not over,” said the nephrologist, who treats patients at the John J. Cochran Veterans Hospital in St. Louis. “We cannot let our guard down. This includes getting annual COVID vaccinations, because they are the key to suppressing long COVID risk. If we abandon vaccinations, the risk is likely to increase.”

For the research, Al-Aly and his team analyzed millions of de-identified medical records in a database maintained by the Department of Veterans Affairs, the nation’s largest integrated health-care system. 

The study included over 440,000 veterans with SARS-CoV-2 infections and more than 4.7 million uninfected veterans. Patients included those who were infected by the original strain, as well as those infected by the delta and omicron variants. Some were vaccinated, while others were unvaccinated. 

The Long COVID rate was highest among those with the original strain, about one in every ten (10.4%). No vaccines existed while the original strain circulated.

The rate declined to 9.5% among those in the unvaccinated groups during the delta era and 7.7% during omicron. Among the vaccinated, the rate of Long COVID during delta was 5.3% and 3.5% during omicron.

“You can see a clear and significant difference in risk during the delta and omicron eras between the vaccinated and unvaccinated,” said Al-Aly. “So, if people think COVID is no big deal and decide to forgo vaccinations, they’re essentially doubling their risk of developing long COVID.”

Al-Aly also emphasized that even with the overall decline, the lowest rate — 3.5% — remains a substantial risk. 

“That’s three to four vaccinated individuals out of 100 getting long COVID,” he said. “Multiplied by the large numbers of people who continue to get infected and reinfected, it’s a lot of people. This remaining risk is not trivial. It will continue to add to an already staggering health problem facing people across the world.”

The World Health Organization has documented more than 775 million cases of COVID-19.

Disabled at Higher Risk of Long COVID  

The CDC recently found that Long COVID symptoms were more prevalent among people with disabilities (10.8%) than among those without disabilities (6.6%).

The new data was released as part of the CDC’s annual update to its Disability and Health Data System, which provides quick and easy online access to state-level health data on adults with disabilities.

The report found data that over 70 million adults in the U.S. reported having a disability in 2022.

Older adults reported a higher disability rate (43.9% for those aged 65 and older) compared to younger age groups. The race/ethnic groups with the highest rate of disability, regardless of age, identified as American Indian or Alaska Natives.

The CDC has fact sheets that provide an overview of disability in each state, including the percentages and characteristics of adults with and without disabilities. Click on any state listed here to view that state’s profile.

The findings underscore the fact that people with disabilities are a large part of every community and population.

Selling Us Short With Long COVID

By Cynthia Toussaint, PNN Columnist

After four years of diligently following CDC guidelines to avoid COVID-19 like the plague, it finally caught up with me. And, like my doctors presumed, I now have Long COVID.

That being said, two months into what I was assured would be worse than a living death, I have to shake my head at how colossally the powers that be underestimate the toughness of women in pain.

After my partner John and I had to cancel a 2020 dream trip to Iceland due to my cancer and the COVID shutdown, we bunkered down because my doctors said I had no wiggle room with chemotherapy – and that likely saved my life.

When I had remission from cancer a second time in 2022, those same doctors shared that while the COVID virus might no longer end me, I’d surely get Long COVID, which would leave me barely able to breathe or move for the rest of my life. This was backed up by many articles and programs that I devoured. I felt doomed.

These were some of my darkest, most dire years – which says a hell of a lot. Already isolated for 44 years from profound disability caused by Complex Regional Pain Syndrome, I felt ever more the odd one out, still wearing a mask and saying no to virtually every invitation.

But with time, the expert prognosis wasn’t adding up – as I watched most of my friends with pain and other chronic illnesses get COVID, only to recover and return to their baseline of “normal.”

Iceland was still beckoning – it’s glaciers, waterfalls, active volcanoes, charming capital city, unique horses and white nights. Come spring this year, my desire trumped all else. I yearned to be amongst the living again, so John and I booked a trip for early June.

We followed the recommended CDC guidelines for travelers, only to land in Iceland sick as dogs. So much for playing by the rules!

Being out of country, we didn’t have any COVID tests, and because we weren’t on our deathbeds as promised, we assumed we’d picked up a run-of-the-mill flu bug.

Flinging off our high temps, chills and fatigue (to name just a few of our symptoms), there was no staying in bed slurping chicken broth and taking Tylenol for us. We muscled on through our trip – and fell in love with this other-worldly land.

Testing Positive

A couple days after our return, John took what I considered a pointless COVID test – and I was floored when he shouted that we’d joined the ranks of the infected by testing positive. More surprising, on day ten of what was supposed to be a worse-than-death sentence, I was functioning fairly well. I could breathe fine and was swimming most of my laps. No hospital, no ventilator, no ICU, no death certificate.

Yes, I’ll give the docs a point or two, if you’re keeping score at home. Eight weeks post-infection, I’ve developed the aforementioned Long COVID, which has triggered my chronic fatigue syndrome, accompanied by a litany of life-compromising symptoms that ebb and flow.

Sometimes I feel fine and other times I uncharacteristically fall asleep from post-exertion malaise. I’m burdened by debilitating migraines and dizziness, and am still hoarse and wonder when I’ll be able to sing clearly again. Still, unless something changes drastically, long-hauling didn’t come as advertised.   

So now I’ve moved from fear of the worst to hope for better days ahead. But with that hope, I’m still mightily pissed off.

I’m livid that doctors and researchers put me into a catastrophic, doomsday mindset during the pandemic. The picture they painted for people like me -- with high-impact chronic illness and a cancer diagnosis -- was black as ink, with no exceptions.

I lived accordingly with terror, dread, fear, high-anxiety and isolation-induced depression. Missed holiday events, get-togethers and no traveling rounded out the experience.

Not being around people, while going through cancer twice, was the apex of these dark years. That inhumanity strained my ability to heal when I needed it most.

Humans are social creatures and inclusion is how we’ve evolved so that we can feel safe, contented and well. Without connection, our mental health suffers, which is just as important as our physical health.

I’m now critically reassessing the necessity of my “bunkering years.” Were they needed? Or did I spend four and a half years of my hard-fought-for life alone for no damn good reason?

CYNTHIA GREETS A FRIEND IN ICELAND

I recently met two lovely women, both with pain and autoimmune issues, who recovered from Long COVID in less than a year, no worse for the wear. I wonder why none of the experts told me that recovery was a possibility, even a likely one. Why was I only given the worst-case scenario? Safe to say if I’d had the facts, I would have poked my head out of the hole far sooner than I did. And when you’re still in the red zone with cancer, every day, every outing COUNTS.

While it’s super hard to watch friends and family recover quickly from COVID, while I trudge on sick and with no end in sight, we with high-impact pain know our lot is always a ton more challenging than normies. That’s money in the bank, a sure bet. Luckily, we’re experts at suffering and coming out the other side.  

But let’s not bury the lead. I’m freer than I’ve been in years. These days I’m doing less mask wearing, so bring on the intimate get-togethers in a cramped, under-ventilated house (ok, ok, maybe after the summer surge next to an open window.) Hugging, kissing and touching those near and dear are back on my to-do list.

Before COVID, John would joke: “I always know when Cynth’s worked a room – because everyone’s got lipstick on their face.” Going forward, look out for the high-gloss and ruby red.       

Whoa, Nelly! Let me be clear. How one takes on COVID is an individual experience – and I respect everyone’s choice. I know women in pain who’ve never put a mask on or vaccinated, and others who plan to mask-up for the rest of their lives while counting the days till the next booster.

We all need to do what makes us feel safe. And, like me, sometimes our choices change with time and information.       

My smile has a deeper meaning these days. Exiting my Y just after our return from Iceland, a friend I adore at the front desk, Solange, excitedly commented, “You look much better, Cynthia!”

I had to laugh, while sharing that I was still getting over COVID. When she quizzically stared, it then hit me. I wasn’t wearing a mask!

A moment of wow struck us both. I’ve known this woman for two years and we’ve shared countless conversations, but that was the first time she’d ever seen my face.              

Women in pain, we’re tougher than the rest. The doctors, the researchers, the experts, the “know-it-alls” always seem to sell us short, either under-protecting because they think we make a mountain out of molehill – or over-protecting because they don’t think we know what’s in our own best interest.

Screw ‘em. They don’t get us, never will. And a once-in-a-century pandemic isn’t going to knock us out. That’s something to smile about.   

Cynthia Toussaint is the founder and spokesperson at For Grace, a non-profit dedicated to bettering the lives of women in pain. She has lived with Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) and multiple co-morbidities for over four decades, and has been battling cancer since 2020. Cynthia is the author of “Battle for Grace: A Memoir of Pain, Redemption and Impossible Love.” 

‘We’re Flying Blind’: Response to Bird Flu Outbreak Mirrors Covid Errors

By Amy Maxmen, KFF Health News

It’s been nearly three months since the U.S. government announced an outbreak of the bird flu virus on dairy farms. The World Health Organization considers the virus a public health concern because of its potential to cause a pandemic, yet the U.S. has tested only about 45 people across the country.

“We’re flying blind,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health. With so few tests run, she said, it’s impossible to know how many farmworkers have been infected, or how serious the disease is. A lack of testing means the country might not notice if the virus begins to spread between people — the gateway to another pandemic.

“We’d like to be doing more testing. There’s no doubt about that,” said Nirav Shah, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC’s bird flu test is the only one the Food and Drug Administration has authorized for use right now. Shah said the agency has distributed these tests to about 100 public health labs in states.

“We’ve got roughly a million available now,” he said, “and expect 1.2 million more in the next two months.”

But Nuzzo and other researchers are concerned because the CDC and public health labs aren’t generally where doctors order tests from. That job tends to be done by major clinical laboratories run by companies and universities, which lack authorization for bird flu testing.

As the outbreak grows — with at least 114 herds infected in 12 states as of June 18 — researchers said the CDC and FDA are not moving fast enough to remove barriers that block clinical labs from testing. In one case, the diagnostics company Neelyx Labs was on hold with a query for more than a month.

“Clinical labs are part of the nation’s public health system,” said Alex Greninger, assistant director of the University of Washington Medicine Clinical Virology Laboratory. “Pull us into the game. We’re stuck on the bench.”

The CDC recognized the need for clinical labs in a June 10 memo. It calls on industry to develop tests for the H5 strain of bird flu virus, the one circulating among dairy cattle.

“The limited availability and accessibility of diagnostic tests for Influenza A(H5) poses several pain points,” the CDC wrote. The points include a shortage of tests if demand spikes.

Testing Failures Made Pandemic Worse

Researchers, including former CDC director Tom Frieden and Anthony Fauci, who led the nation’s response to covid, cite testing failures as a key reason the U.S. fared so poorly with covid. Had covid tests been widely available in early 2020, they say, the U.S. could have detected many cases before they turned into outbreaks that prompted business shutdowns and cost lives.

In an article published this month, Nuzzo and a group of colleagues noted that the problem wasn’t testing capability but a failure to deploy that capability swiftly. The U.S. reported excess mortality eight times as high as other countries with advanced labs and other technological advantages.

A covid test vetted by the WHO was available by mid-January 2020. Rather than use it, the United States stuck to its own multistage process, which took several months. Namely, the CDC develops its own test then sends it to local public health labs. Eventually, the FDA authorizes tests from clinical diagnostic labs that serve hospital systems, which must then scale up their operations. That took time, and people died amid outbreaks at nursing homes and prisons, waiting on test results.

In contrast, South Korea immediately rolled out testing through private sector laboratories, allowing it to keep schools and businesses open. “They said, ‘Gear up, guys; we’re going to need a ton of tests,’” said Frieden, now president of the public health organization Resolve to Save Lives. “You need to get commercials in the game.” 

Nuzzo and her colleagues describe a step-by-step strategy for rolling out testing in health emergencies, in response to mistakes made obvious by covid. But in this bird flu outbreak, the U.S. is weeks behind that playbook.

Ample testing is critical for two reasons. First, people need to know if they’re infected so that they can be quickly treated, Nuzzo said. Over the past two decades, roughly half of about 900 people around the globe known to have gotten the bird flu died from it.

Although the three farmworkers diagnosed with the disease this year in the United States had only mild symptoms, like a runny nose and inflamed eyes, others may not be so lucky. The flu treatment Tamiflu works only when given soon after symptoms start.

The CDC and local health departments have tried to boost bird flu testing among farmworkers, asking them to be tested if they feel sick. Farmworker advocates list several reasons why their outreach efforts are failing. The outreach might not be in the languages the farmworkers speak, for example, or address such concerns as a loss of employment.

If people who live and work around farms simply see a doctor when they or their children fall ill, those cases could be missed if the doctors send samples to their usual clinical laboratories. The CDC has asked doctors to send samples from people with flu symptoms who have exposure to livestock or poultry to public health labs.

“If you work on a farm with an outbreak and you’re worried about your welfare, you can get tested,” Shah said.

But sending samples to public health departments requires knowledge, time, and effort.

“I really worry about a testing scheme in which busy clinicians need to figure this out,” Nuzzo said.

‘Get Prepared Before Things Get Crazy’

The other reason to involve clinical laboratories is so the nation can ramp up testing if the bird flu is suddenly detected among people who didn’t catch it from cattle. There’s no evidence the virus has started to spread among people, but that could change in coming months as it evolves.

The fastest way to get clinical labs involved, Greninger said, is to allow them to use a test the FDA has already authorized: the CDC’s bird flu test. On April 16 the CDC opened up that possibility by offering royalty-free licenses for components of its bird flu tests to accredited labs.

Several commercial labs asked for licenses. “We want to get prepared before things get crazy,” said Shyam Saladi, chief executive officer of the diagnostics company Neelyx Labs, which offered covid and mpox tests during shortages in those outbreaks. His experience over the past two months reveals the types of barriers that prevent labs from moving swiftly.

In email exchanges with the CDC, shared with KFF Health News, Saladi specifies the labs’ desire for licenses relevant to the CDC’s test, as well as a “right to reference” the CDC’s data in its application for FDA authorization.

That “right to reference” makes it easier for one company to use a test developed by another. It allows the new group to skip certain analyses conducted by the original maker, by telling the FDA to look at data in the original FDA application. This was commonplace with covid tests at the peak of the pandemic.

At first, the CDC appeared eager to cooperate. “A right of reference to the data should be available,” Jonathan Motley, a patent specialist at the CDC, wrote in an email to Saladi on April 24. Over the next few weeks, the CDC sent him information about transferring its licenses to the company, and about the test, which prompted Neelyx’s researchers to buy testing components and try out the CDC’s process on their equipment.

But Saladi grew increasingly anxious about the ability to reference the CDC’s data in the company’s FDA application. “Do you have an update with respect to the right of reference?” he asked the CDC on May 13. “If there are any potential sticking points with respect to this, would you mind letting us know please?”

He asked several more times in the following weeks, as the number of herds infected with the bird flu ticked upward and more cases among farmworkers were announced. “Given that it is May 24 and the outbreak has only expanded, can CDC provide a date by which it plans to respond?” Saladi wrote.

The CDC eventually signed a licensing agreement with Neelyx but informed Saladi that it would not, in fact, provide the reference. Without that, Saladi said, he could not move forward with the CDC’s test — at least not without more material from the agency. “It’s really frustrating,” he said. “We thought they really intended to support the development of these tests in case they are needed.”

Shah, from the CDC, said test manufacturers should generate their own data to prove that they’re using the CDC’s test correctly. “We don’t have a shortage such that we need to cut corners,” he said. “Quality reigns supreme.”

The CDC has given seven companies, including Neelyx, licenses for its tests — although none have been cleared to use them by the FDA. Only one of those companies asked for the right of reference, Shah said. The labs may be assisted by additional material that the agency is developing now, to allow them to complete the analyses — even without the reference.

“This should have happened sooner,” Saladi told KFF Health News when he was told about the CDC’s pending additional material. “There’s been no communication about this.”

Greninger said the delays and confusion are reminiscent of the early months of covid, when federal agencies prioritized caution over speed. Test accuracy is important, he said, but excessive vetting can cause harm in a fast-moving outbreak like this one. “The CDC should be trying to open this up to labs with national reach and a good reputation,” he said. “I fall on the side of allowing labs to get ready — that’s a no-brainer.”

Clinical laboratories have also begun to develop their own tests from scratch. But researchers said they’re moving cautiously because of a recent FDA rule that gives the agency more oversight of lab-developed tests, lengthening the pathway to approval. In an email to KFF Health News, FDA press officer Janell Goodwin said the rule’s enforcement will occur gradually.

However, Susan Van Meter, president of the American Clinical Laboratory Association, a trade group whose members include the nation’s largest commercial diagnostic labs, said companies need more clarity: “It’s slowing things down because it’s adding to the confusion about what is allowable.”

Creating tests for the bird flu is already a risky bet, because demand is uncertain. It’s not clear whether this outbreak in cattle will trigger an epidemic or fizzle out. In addition to issues with the CDC and FDA, clinical laboratories are trying to figure out whether health insurers or the government will pay for bird flu tests.

These wrinkles will be smoothed eventually. Until then, the vanishingly slim numbers of people tested, along with the lack of testing in cattle, may draw criticism from other parts of the world.

“Think about our judgment of China’s transparency at the start of covid,” Nuzzo said. “The current situation undermines America’s standing in the world.”

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues.  

How Stress, Burnout and Labor Shortages Affect Anesthesia Care  

By Pat Anson, PNN Editor

Growing demand for surgical procedures to treat chronic pain and other medical conditions is contributing to shortages of anesthesia care providers, according to an op/ed in Anesthesiology, the journal of the American Society of Anesthesiologists.

"The labor supply-demand imbalance for anesthesia clinicians has reached critical levels, with major implications for safe and effective patient care," says lead author Amr Abouleish, MD, an anesthesiologist and professor at the University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston.

Many outpatient and elective surgical procedures that were postponed during the Covid-19 pandemic have been rescheduled, leading to a surge in demand that has exacerbated shortages of anesthesia staff. Before the pandemic, about 35% of hospitals and surgical centers reported an anesthesia staffing shortage. Two years after the pandemic, the staffing shortage doubled to 78%.

“But these shortages aren't unique to just anesthesia,” Abouleish told PNN. “We're short nurses, technicians, pharmacists, even aides. And we see that in all our facilities now nationwide.”

Tired of the stress, burnout and workload demands, some providers left healthcare to pursue other professions or retired early. That has contributed to a “dangerous spiral” that has compromised healthcare access and the quality of care. Instead of using general or full anesthesia in an operating room, many outpatient procedures are now performed using partial anesthesia or a local anesthetic, which are cheaper and require less staff.

Abouleish, who specializes in pediatric care, says the staffing shortages haven’t affected patient safety in his practice. But he often finds himself working with someone on a surgery team for the first time.

“The first time we meet the nurse anesthetists is literally the day I’m working with them,” he explained. “When I work with somebody I've worked with for 10 years, we have a rapport. We've developed trust and we understand each other's limits. And that's clearly more effective, better for the team, and better for patients. As long as there is a constant change in staff, I think that's worrisome for patient safety. The surgeons will tell you the same thing.”

Abouleish says the opioid crisis has led to a more multimodal approach to treating chronic pain, which has resulted in more fusions, nerve blocks, spinal injections and other procedures that require some level of anesthesia.

“It's gone from what I saw maybe 10 years ago, before the opioid crisis, where you had physicians or clinics where the only pain management was to hand out opioids. Now it's a multimodal, multidisciplinary approach,” he said.

“There are some patients who do well with a low dose opioid, there's no question about that. But it's also important to have that multi-disciplinary approach to chronic pain. The goal oftentimes is not to take the pain away, it's just to make your everyday life more livable.”

The Center for Anesthesia Workforce Studies estimates that nearly 4,800 anesthesia professionals in the U.S. left the workforce in 2022. The following year, about 5,200 anesthesia professionals entered the workforce from training programs. Although the anesthesia workforce is growing, it’s not growing fast enough to keep pace with demand or attrition. About 57% of anesthesiologists are 55 or older and nearing retirement.

To ease workforce shortages, Abouleish and his co-authors say the number of anesthesiologist residency positions should be increased. Steps should also be taken to improve staff retention by addressing burnout and other workplace issues through more flexible scheduling and part-time work. They also say Medicare payments for anesthesiology services need to increase to keep pace with inflation and higher healthcare costs. 

Lack of Testing Raises Risk of Bird Flu Pandemic

By Amy Maxmen and Arthur Allen, KFF Health News

Stanford University infectious disease doctor Abraar Karan has seen a lot of patients with runny noses, fevers, and irritated eyes lately. Such symptoms could signal allergies, covid, or a cold. This year, there’s another suspect, bird flu — but there’s no way for most doctors to know.

If the government doesn’t prepare to ramp up H5N1 bird flu testing, he and other researchers warn, the United States could be caught off guard again by a pandemic.

“We’re making the same mistakes today that we made with covid,” Deborah Birx, who served as former President Donald Trump’s coronavirus response coordinator, said June 4 on CNN.

To become a pandemic, the H5N1 bird flu virus would need to spread from person to person. The best way to keep tabs on that possibility is by testing people.

Scientifically speaking, many diagnostic laboratories could detect the virus. However, red tape, billing issues, and minimal investment are barriers to quickly ramping up widespread availability of testing. At the moment, the Food and Drug Administration has authorized only the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s bird flu test, which is used only for people who work closely with livestock.

State and federal authorities have detected bird flu in dairy cattle in 12 states. Three people who work on separate dairy farms tested positive, and it is presumed they caught the virus from cows. Yet researchers agree that number is an undercount given the CDC has tested only about 40 people for the disease.

“It’s important to know if this is contained on farms, but we have no information because we aren’t looking,” said Helen Chu, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Washington in Seattle who alerted the country to covid’s spread in 2020 by testing people more broadly.

Reports of untested sick farmworkers — as well as a maternity worker who had flu symptoms — in the areas with H5N1 outbreaks among cattle in Texas suggest the numbers are higher. And the mild symptoms of those who tested positive — a cough and eye inflammation, without a fever — are such that infected people might not bother seeking medical care and, therefore, wouldn’t be tested.

The CDC has asked farmworkers with flu symptoms to get tested, but researchers are concerned about a lack of outreach and incentives to encourage testing among people with limited job security and access to health care. Further, by testing only on dairy farms, the agency likely would miss evidence of wider spread.

“It’s hard to not compare this to covid, where early on we only tested people who had traveled,” said Benjamin Pinsky, medical director of the clinical virology laboratory at Stanford University. “That left us open to not immediately recognizing that it was transmitting among the community.”

In the early months of covid, the rollout of testing in the United States was catastrophically slow. Although the World Health Organization had validated a test and other groups had developed their own using basic molecular biology techniques, the CDC at first insisted on creating and relying on its own test. Adding to delays, the first version it shipped to state health labs didn’t work.

The FDA lagged, too. It didn’t authorize tests from diagnostic laboratories outside of the CDC until late February 2020.

On Feb. 27, 2020, Chu’s research lab detected covid in a teenager who didn’t meet the CDC’s narrow testing criteria. This case sounded an alarm that covid had spread below the radar. Scaling up to meet demand took time: Months passed before anyone who needed a covid test could get one.

Chu notes this isn’t 2020 — not by a long shot. Hospitals aren’t overflowing with bird flu patients. Also, the country has the tools to do much better this time around, she said, if there’s political will.

‘We Should Absolutely Get Prepared’

For starters, tests that detect the broad category of influenzas that H5N1 belongs to, called influenza A, are FDA-approved and ubiquitous. These are routinely run in the “flu season,” from November to February. An unusual number of positives from these garden-variety flu tests this spring and summer could alert researchers that something is awry.

Doctors, however, are unlikely to request influenza A tests for patients with respiratory symptoms outside of flu season, in part because health insurers may not cover them except in limited circumstances, said Alex Greninger, assistant director of the clinical virology laboratory at the University of Washington.

That’s a solvable problem, he added. At the peak of the covid pandemic, the government overcame billing issues by mandating that insurance companies cover tests, and set a lucrative price to make it worthwhile for manufacturers. “You ran into a testing booth on every other block in Manhattan because companies got $100 every time they stuck a swab in someone’s nose,” Greninger said.

Another obstacle is that the FDA has yet to allow companies to run their influenza A tests using eye swabs, although the CDC and public health labs are permitted to do so. Notably, the bird flu virus was detected only in an eye swab from one farmworker infected this year — and not in samples drawn from the nose or throat.

Overcoming such barriers is essential, Chu said, to ramp up influenza A testing in regions with livestock. “The biggest bang for the buck is making sure that these tests are routine at clinics that serve farmworker communities,” she said, and suggested pop-up testing at state fairs, too.

In the meantime, novel tests that detect the H5N1 virus, specifically, could be brought up to speed. The CDC’s current test isn’t very sensitive or simple to use, researchers said.

Stanford, the University of Washington, the Mayo Clinic, and other diagnostic laboratories that serve hospital systems have developed alternatives to detecting the virus circulating now. However, their reach is limited, and researchers stress a need to jump-start additional capacity for testing before a crisis is underway.

“How can we make sure that if this becomes a public health emergency we aren’t stuck in the early days of covid, where things couldn’t move quickly?” Pinsky said.

A recent rule that gives the FDA more oversight of lab-developed tests may bog down authorization. In a statement to KFF Health News, the FDA said that, for now, it may allow tests to proceed without a full approval process. The CDC did not respond to requests for comment.

But the American Clinical Laboratory Association has asked the FDA and the CDC for clarity on the new rule. “It’s slowing things down because it’s adding to the confusion about what is allowable,” said Susan Van Meter, president of the diagnostic laboratory trade group.

Labcorp, Quest Diagnostics, and other major testing companies are in the best position to manage a surge in testing demand because they can process hundreds per day, rather than dozens. But that would require adapting testing processes for their specialized equipment, a process that consumes time and money, said Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic.

“There’s only been a handful of H5N1 cases in humans the last few years,” he said, “so it’s hard for them to invest millions when we don’t know the future.”

The government could provide funding to underwrite its research, or commit to buying tests in bulk, much as Operation Warp Speed did to advance covid vaccine development.

“If we need to move to scale this, there would need to be an infusion of money,” said Kelly Wroblewski, director of infectious disease programs at the Association of Public Health Laboratories. Like an insurance policy, the upfront expense would be slight compared with the economic blow of another pandemic.

Other means of tracking the H5N1 virus are critical, too. Detecting antibodies against the bird flu in farmworkers would help reveal whether more people have been infected and recovered. And analyzing wastewater for the virus could indicate an uptick in infections in people, birds, or cattle.

As with all pandemic preparedness efforts, the difficulty lies in stressing the need to act before a crisis strikes, Greninger said.

“We should absolutely get prepared,” he said, “but until the government insures some of the risk here, it’s hard to make a move in that direction.”

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. 

CDC Could Be ‘Dismantled’ in Second Trump Term

By Pat Anson, PNN Editor

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is “the most incompetent and arrogant agency in the federal government,” not qualified to offer medical advice to patients, and its ability to set public health policy should be “severely confined.”  

Those are some of recommendations being made by The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that seeks a major overhaul of the federal government if a Republican president – presumably Donald Trump – is sworn into office next year.

The agenda for Project 2025 is outlined in “Mandate for Leadership” – an 887-page book that advocates for many traditional conservative goals: smaller government, lower taxes, restrictive abortion laws, and an end to federal policies that promote equality and diversity.

We’re not going to get into those hot button issues, but will focus on how Mandate for Leadership would “dismantle the administration state” that governs healthcare in America.

That section of the book is written by Roger Severino, the former director of the Office for Civil Rights at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) during the first Trump administration.   

To begin, it’s pretty clear that the CDC has a target on its back, largely due to how the agency responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by shutting down much of the country in a bid to control the virus.    

“COVID-19 exposed the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as perhaps the most incompetent and arrogant agency in the federal government. CDC continually misjudged COVID-19, from its lethality, transmissibility, and origins to treatments,” wrote Severino.

“Unaccountable bureaucrats like Anthony Fauci should never again have such broad, unchecked power to issue health ‘guidelines’ that will certainly be the basis for federal and state mandates. Never again should public health bureaucrats be allowed to hide information, ignore information, or mislead the public concerning the efficacy or dangers associated with any recommended health interventions.”

Substitute “Tom Frieden” for “Anthony Fauci” and that paragraph would nicely sum up how many pain patients and doctors feel about the former CDC director and the 2016 CDC opioid guideline. Drafted in secret under Frieden’s leadership, the agency’s guideline development process likely violated federal open meeting and conflict-of-interest laws, while hiding behind an almost comical “Cone of Silence.”

Although its recommendations are voluntary, the opioid guideline was quickly adopted as a mandatory policy by many states, regulators and law enforcement – resulting in hundreds of doctors losing their medical licenses or going to prison for “overprescribing” opioids.

Severino, an attorney who seems well-positioned for another key healthcare job if Trump is elected to a second term, says the CDC went far beyond its authority when it created medical guidelines.  

“Most problematically, the CDC presented itself as a kind of ‘super-doctor’ for the entire nation. The CDC is a public health institution, not a medical institution,” he wrote. “It is not qualified to offer professional medical opinions applicable to specific patients. We have learned that when CDC says what people ‘should’ do, it readily becomes a ‘must’ backed by severe punishments, including criminal penalties.

“CDC guidelines are analogous to guidelines from other public health associations or medical societies: They are informative, not prescriptive. By statute or regulation, CDC guidance must be prohibited from taking on a prescriptive character.”

Split in Two

How can the CDC be reined in? The answer, according to Severino, is to cut the CDC in half and slash much of its funding.

“The CDC should be split into two separate entities housing its two distinct functions,” he wrote. “These distinct functions should be separated into two entirely separate agencies with a firewall between them. We need a national epidemiological agency responsible only for publishing data and required by law to publish all of the data gathered from states and other sources. A separate agency should be responsible for public health with a severely confined ability to make policy recommendations.”

Frieden calls that proposal “very dangerous and very wrong.”

“We don’t split up the military because it’s too big. We don’t split up corporations because they’re too big,” Frieden told Politico.Big organization needs a big management structure and also flexibility.”

Severino says the CDC Foundation, a not-for-profit organization that works closely with the agency in promoting health policy, should be prohibited from accepting contributions from the pharmaceutical industry. The foundation received nearly $275 million in donations last year, much of it coming from Pfizer, Biogen, Merck and other healthcare companies.  

“This practice presents a stark conflict of interest that should be banned,” wrote Severino. “The CDC and NIH Foundations, whose boards are populated with pharmaceutical company executives, need to be decommissioned. Private donations to these foundations — a majority of them from pharmaceutical companies— should not be permitted to influence government decisions about research funding or public health policy.”

Severino also wants stronger transparency and conflict of interest policies, not just at the CDC, but at HHS and all federal agencies involved in healthcare. He thinks a lengthy “cooling off period” should be adopted to prevent federal regulators from going into industries they helped regulate once their government jobs end. A 15-year cooling off period “would not be too long,” according to Severino.

To be clear, Mandate for Leadership is more of a wish list than anything else. It all hinges on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. If it does become a playbook for a second Trump administration, some of its recommendations could be imposed by executive order, but many will require congressional approval. CDC directors, once directly appointed by the president, will need Senate confirmation next year under a new law, just as other cabinet members do.      

Whatever happens, it’s clear that conservative advocates are gunning for the CDC.

“The federal government’s public health apparatus has lost the public’s trust. Before the next national public health emergency, this apparatus must be fundamentally restructured,” Severino wrote.

Many Covid Patients Can’t Afford Paxlovid

By Arthur Allen, KFF Health News

Evangelical minister Eddie Hyatt believes in the healing power of prayer but “also the medical approach.” So on a February evening a week before scheduled prostate surgery, he had his sore throat checked out at an emergency room near his home in Grapevine, Texas.

A doctor confirmed that Hyatt had covid-19 and sent him to CVS with a prescription for the antiviral drug Paxlovid, the generally recommended medicine to fight covid. Hyatt handed the pharmacist the script, but then, he said, “She kept avoiding me.”

She finally looked up from her computer and said, “It’s $1,600.”

The generally healthy 76-year-old went out to the car to consult his wife about their credit card limits. “I don’t think I’ve ever spent more than $20 on a prescription,” the astonished Hyatt recalled.

That kind of sticker shock has stunned thousands of sick Americans since late December, as Pfizer shifted to commercial sales of Paxlovid. Before then, the federal government covered the cost of the drug.

The price is one reason Paxlovid is not reaching those who need it most. And patients who qualify for free doses, which Pfizer offers under an agreement with the federal government, often don’t realize it or know how to get them.

“If you want to create a barrier to people getting a treatment, making it cost a lot is the way to do it,” said William Schaffner, a professor at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine and spokesperson for the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases.

Public and medical awareness of Paxlovid’s benefits is low, and putting people through an application process to get the drug when they’re sick is a non-starter, Schaffner said. Pfizer says it takes only five minutes online.

It’s not an easy drug to use. Doctors are wary about prescribing it because of dangerous interactions with common drugs that treat cholesterol, blood clots, and other conditions. It must be taken within five days of the first symptoms. It leaves a foul taste in the mouth. In one study, 1 in 5 patients reported “rebound” covid symptoms a few days after finishing the medicine — though rebound can also occur without Paxlovid.

A recent JAMA Network study found that sick people 85 and older were less likely than younger Medicare patients to get covid therapies like Paxlovid. The drug might have prevented up to 27,000 deaths in 2022 if it had been allocated based on which patients were at highest risk from covid. Nursing home patients, who account for around 1 in 6 U.S. covid deaths, were about two-thirds as likely as other older adults to get the drug.

Vaccine Misinformation

Shrunken confidence in government health programs is one reason the drug isn’t reaching those who need it. In senior living facilities, “a lack of clear information and misinformation” are “causing residents and their families to be reluctant to take the necessary steps to reduce covid risks,” said David Gifford, chief medical officer for an association representing 14,000 health care providers, many in senior care.

The anti-vaxxers spreading falsehoods about vaccines have targeted Paxlovid as well. Some call themselves anti-paxxers.

“Proactive and health-literate people get the drug. Those who are receiving information more passively have no idea whether it’s important or harmful,” said Michael Barnett, a primary care physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and an associate professor at Harvard, who led the JAMA Network study.

In fact, the drug is still free for those who are uninsured or enrolled in Medicare, Medicaid, or other federal health programs, including those for veterans.

That’s what rescued Hyatt, whose Department of Veterans Affairs health plan doesn’t normally cover outpatient drugs. While he searched on his phone for a solution, the pharmacist’s assistant suddenly appeared from the store. “It won’t cost you anything!” she said.

As Hyatt’s case suggests, it helps to know to ask for free Paxlovid, although federal officials say they’ve educated clinicians and pharmacists — like the one who helped Hyatt — about the program.

“There is still a heaven!” Hyatt replied. After he had been on Paxlovid for a few days his symptoms were gone and his surgery was rescheduled.

About That $1,390 List Price

Pfizer sold the U.S. government 23.7 million five-day courses of Paxlovid, produced under an FDA emergency authorization, in 2021 and 2022, at a price of around $530 each.

Under the new agreement, Pfizer commits to provide the drug for the beneficiaries of the government insurance programs. Meanwhile, Pfizer bills insurers for some portion of the $1,390 list price. Some patients say pharmacies have quoted them prices of $1,600 or more.

How exactly Pfizer arrived at that price isn’t clear. Pfizer won’t say. A Harvard study last year estimated the cost of producing generic Paxlovid at about $15 per treatment course, including manufacturing expenses, a 10% profit markup, and 27% in taxes.

Pfizer reported $12.5 billion in Paxlovid and covid vaccine sales in 2023, after a $57 billion peak in 2022. The company’s 2024 Super Bowl ad, which cost an estimated $14 million to place, focused on Pfizer’s cancer drug pipeline, newly reinforced with its $43 billion purchase of biotech company Seagen. Unlike some other recent oft-aired Pfizer ads (“If it’s covid, Paxlovid”), it didn’t mention covid products.

The other problem is getting the drug where it is needed. “We negotiated really hard with Pfizer to make sure that Paxlovid would be available to Americans the way they were accustomed to,” Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra told reporters in February. “If you have private insurance, it should not cost you much money, certainly not more than $100.”

‘This Is a Mistake’

Yet in nursing homes, getting Paxlovid is particularly cumbersome, said Chad Worz, CEO of the American Society of Consultant Pharmacists, specialists who provide medicines to care homes.

If someone in long-term care tests positive for covid, the nurse tells the physician, who orders the drug from a pharmacist, who may report back that the patient is on several drugs that interact with Paxlovid, Worz said. Figuring out which drugs to stop temporarily requires further consultations while the time for efficacious use of Paxlovid dwindles, he said.

His group tried to get the FDA to approve a shortcut similar to the standing orders that enable pharmacists to deliver anti-influenza medications when there are flu outbreaks in nursing homes, Worz said. “We were close,” he said, but “it just never came to fruition.”

“The FDA is unable to comment,” spokesperson Chanapa Tantibanchachai said.

Los Angeles County requires nursing homes to offer any covid-positive patient an antiviral, but the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, which oversees nursing homes nationwide, has not issued similar guidance.

“And this is a mistake,” said Karl Steinberg, chief medical officer for two nursing home chains with facilities in San Diego County, which also has no such mandate. A requirement would ensure the patient “isn’t going to fall through the cracks,” he said.

While it hasn’t ordered doctors to prescribe Paxlovid, CMS on Jan. 4 issued detailed instructions to health insurers urging swift approval of Paxlovid prescriptions, given the five-day window for the drug’s efficacy. It also “encourages” plans to make sure pharmacists know about the free Paxlovid arrangement.

Current covid strains appear less virulent than those that circulated earlier in the pandemic, and years of vaccination and covid infection have left fewer people at risk of grave outcomes. But risk remains, particularly among older seniors, who account for most covid deaths, which number more than 13,500 so far this year in the U.S.

Steinberg, who sees patients in 15 residences, said he orders Paxlovid even for covid-positive patients without symptoms. None of the 30 to 40 patients whom he prescribed the drug in the past year needed hospitalization, he said; two stopped taking it because of nausea or the foul taste, a pertinent concern in older people whose appetites already have ebbed.

Steinberg said he knew of two patients who died of covid in his companies’ facilities this year. Neither was on Paxlovid. He can’t be sure the drug would have made a difference, but he’s not taking any chances. The benefits, he said, outweigh the risks.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues.

Even Mild Cases of Covid-19 Pose Serious Risks to Brain Health

By Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly

From the very early days of the pandemic, “brain fogemerged as a significant health condition that many experience after COVID-19.

Brain fog is a colloquial term that describes a state of mental sluggishness or lack of clarity and haziness that makes it difficult to concentrate, remember things and think clearly.

Fast-forward four years and there is now abundant evidence that being infected with SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19 – can affect brain health in many ways.

In addition to brain fog, COVID-19 can lead to an array of problems, including headaches, seizure disorders, strokes, sleep problems, and tingling and paralysis of the nerves, as well as several mental health disorders.

A large and growing body of evidence amassed throughout the pandemic details the many ways that COVID-19 leaves an indelible mark on the brain. But the specific pathways by which the virus does so are still being elucidated, and curative treatments are nonexistent.

Now, two new studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine shed further light on the profound toll of COVID-19 on cognitive health.

I am a physician scientist, and I have been devoted to studying long COVID since early patient reports about this condition – even before the term “long COVID” was coined. I have testified before the U.S. Senate as an expert witness on long COVID and have published extensively on this topic.

Here are some of the most important studies to date documenting how COVID-19 affects brain health:

  • Large epidemiological analyses showed that people who had COVID-19 were at an increased risk of cognitive deficits, such as memory problems.

  • Imaging studies done in people before and after their COVID-19 infections show shrinkage of brain volume and altered brain structure after infection.

  • A study of people with mild to moderate COVID-19 showed significant prolonged inflammation of the brain and changes that are commensurate with seven years of brain aging.

  • Severe COVID-19 that requires hospitalization or intensive care may result in cognitive deficits and other brain damage that are equivalent to 20 years of aging.

  • Laboratory experiments in human and mouse brain organoids designed to emulate changes in the human brain showed that SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers the fusion of brain cells. This effectively short-circuits brain electrical activity and compromises function.

  • Autopsy studies of people who had severe COVID-19 but died months later from other causes showed that the virus was still present in brain tissue. This provides evidence that contrary to its name, SARS-CoV-2 is not only a respiratory virus, but it can also enter the brain in some individuals. But whether the persistence of the virus in brain tissue is driving some of the brain problems seen in people who have had COVID-19 is not yet clear.

  • Studies show that even when the virus is mild and exclusively confined to the lungs, it can still provoke inflammation in the brain and impair brain cells’ ability to regenerate.

  • COVID-19 can also disrupt the blood brain barrier, the shield that protects the nervous system – which is the control and command center of our bodies – making it “leaky.” Studies using imaging to assess the brains of people hospitalized with COVID-19 showed disrupted or leaky blood brain barriers in those who experienced brain fog.

  • A large preliminary analysis pooling together data from 11 studies encompassing almost 1 million people with COVID-19 and more than 6 million uninfected individuals showed that COVID-19 increased the risk of development of new-onset dementia in people older than 60 years of age.

Autopsies have revealed devastating damage in the brains of people who died with COVID-19.

Drops in IQ

Most recently, a new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine assessed cognitive abilities such as memory, planning and spatial reasoning in nearly 113,000 people who had previously had COVID-19. The researchers found that those who had been infected had significant deficits in memory and executive task performance.

This decline was evident among those infected in the early phase of the pandemic and those infected when the delta and omicron variants were dominant. These findings show that the risk of cognitive decline did not abate as the pandemic virus evolved from the ancestral strain to omicron.

In the same study, those who had mild and resolved COVID-19 showed cognitive decline equivalent to a three-point loss of IQ. In comparison, those with unresolved persistent symptoms, such as people with persistent shortness of breath or fatigue, had a six-point loss in IQ. Those who had been admitted to the intensive care unit for COVID-19 had a nine-point loss in IQ. Reinfection with the virus contributed an additional two-point loss in IQ, as compared with no reinfection.

Generally the average IQ is about 100. An IQ above 130 indicates a highly gifted individual, while an IQ below 70 generally indicates a level of intellectual disability that may require significant societal support.

To put the finding of the New England Journal of Medicine study into perspective, I estimate that a three-point downward shift in IQ would increase the number of U.S. adults with an IQ less than 70 from 4.7 million to 7.5 million – an increase of 2.8 million adults with a level of cognitive impairment that requires significant societal support.

Another study in the same issue of the New England Journal of Medicine involved more than 100,000 Norwegians between March 2020 and April 2023. It documented worse memory function at several time points up to 36 months following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test.

Memory and Cognitive Decline

Taken together, these studies show that COVID-19 poses a serious risk to brain health, even in mild cases, and the effects are now being revealed at the population level.

A recent analysis of the U.S. Current Population Survey showed that after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, an additional 1 million working-age Americans reported having “serious difficulty” remembering, concentrating or making decisions than at any time in the preceding 15 years. Most disconcertingly, this was mostly driven by younger adults between the ages of 18 to 44.

Data from the European Union shows a similar trend – in 2022, 15% of people in the EU reported memory and concentration issues.

Looking ahead, it will be critical to identify who is most at risk. A better understanding is also needed of how these trends might affect the educational attainment of children and young adults and the economic productivity of working-age adults. And the extent to which these shifts will influence the epidemiology of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease is also not clear.

The growing body of research now confirms that COVID-19 should be considered a virus with a significant impact on the brain. The implications are far-reaching, from individuals experiencing cognitive struggles to the potential impact on populations and the economy.

Lifting the fog on the true causes behind these cognitive impairments, including brain fog, will require years if not decades of concerted efforts by researchers across the globe. And unfortunately, nearly everyone is a test case in this unprecedented global undertaking.

Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, is Chief of Research and Development at VA St. Louis Health Care System and a Senior Clinical Epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis.

Dr. Al-Aly’s laboratory was the first to produce evidence on the effects of vaccines on Long Covid, the health consequences of repeated infections with SARS-CoV-2, and the effect of antivirals on the short- and long-term outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection. He also co-chaired the Biden Administration committee that developed the National Research Action Plan for Long Covid.

This article originally appeared in The Conversation and is republished with permission.

‘Game Changing’ Study Finds Cause of Long Covid Brain Fog

By Pat Anson, PNN Editor

Inflamed and leaky blood vessels in the human brain appear to be the cause of brain fog and other cognitive issues in patients with Long Covid, according to a groundbreaking study by a team of Irish researchers.

The discovery that a viral infection may cause cognitive decline could help explain why memory loss, confusion and trouble concentrating is common in patients with other chronic illnesses, such as fibromyalgia, multiple sclerosis and chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS).

Scientists at Trinity College Dublin and FutureNeuro used a specialized MRI to compare the brains of Long Covid patients with brain fog to those without brain fog.

The MRI images show how Long Covid can affect the brain’s delicate network of blood vessels. Patients with brain fog (right column) have significantly more inflammation and blood vessel leakage than those without brain fog (left column).

Patients with brain fog also had more elevated levels of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) in their blood, which is a sign of cerebrovascular damage often found in patients with repetitive head trauma.

The images and findings are published in the journal Nature Neuroscience.

“For the first time, we have been able to show that leaky blood vessels in the human brain, in tandem with a hyperactive immune system, may be the key drivers of brain fog associated with Long COVID,” said lead author Matthew Campbell, PhD, a Professor in Genetics and Head of Genetics at Trinity College, and Principal Investigator at FutureNeuro. 

“The concept that many other viral infections that lead to post-viral syndromes might drive blood vessel leakage in the brain is potentially game changing and is under active investigation by the team.” 

NATURE NEUROSCIENCE

About 10% of the people infected with the SARS-CoV2 virus develop Long Covid, a broad range of conditions that causes fatigue, shortness of breath, and muscle and joint pain. About half of Long Covid patients also report brain fog or some lingering neurological issue. 

“The findings will now likely change the landscape of how we understand and treat post-viral neurological conditions. It also confirms that the neurological symptoms of Long Covid are measurable with real and demonstrable metabolic and vascular changes in the brain,” said co-author Colin Doherty, Professor of Neurology and Head of the School of Medicine at Trinity, and Principal Investigator at FutureNeuro. 

In recent years, research has found that multiple sclerosis, lupus and other autoimmune conditions are triggered by the Epstein-Barr virus. The exact mechanism is unclear and proving there is a direct link between viral infections and brain fog has been challenging – until now.   

“Our findings have now set the stage for further studies examining the molecular events that lead to post-viral fatigue and brain fog. Without doubt, similar mechanisms are at play across many disparate types of viral infection and we are now tantalisingly close to understanding how and why they cause neurological dysfunction in patients,” said first author Chris Greene, PhD, a research fellow in the School of Genetics and Microbiology at Trinity.

The study was funded by Science Foundation Ireland, the European Research Council and FutureNeuro, a research center for chronic and rare neurological diseases.

DEA Urged to End ‘Red Flag’ Policy for Pharmacies

By Pat Anson, PNN Editor

A coalition of telehealth companies is urging the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration to stop telling pharmacies to be careful about filling prescriptions for opioids and other controlled substances that originate from out-of-state.

The DEA’s “red flag” policy has had a chilling effect on doctors and patients nationwide, including those that use telehealth services. Many pain patients have found that pharmacies won’t fill opioid prescriptions written by doctors that are not near them geographically.  

In an open letter to the DEA, the American Telemedicine Association and a handful of telehealth providers said “clearer green lights” were needed from the DEA on how to safely dispense controlled substances, not more red flags.

“The DEA should provide explicit guidance to the pharmacy community that geography of a prescriber in relation to the patient or the pharmacy should not be a ‘red flag’ when a prescription is a result of a telehealth visit,” the letter states. “The distance of a telehealth prescriber from the patient alone should not give a pharmacist a signal that the prescription may be illegitimate.”

The DEA relaxed telehealth rules three years ago at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, to allow for opioids, stimulants, sedatives and other controlled substances to be prescribed remotely via telehealth. Those temporary rules have been extended until the end of 2024, to give the DEA more time to develop permanent ones to govern telehealth.

Many pharmacies haven’t gotten the message. In a recent PNN survey, over 90% of pain patients with an opioid prescription said they had trouble getting a pharmacy to dispense their medication. Drug shortages are the primary cause, but so is the fear of some pharmacists that they could get in trouble or even lose their jobs if they filled a prescription deemed suspicious because it comes from out-of-state.

“In conversations with the pharmacy community and in our experience as prescribers, we have determined many pharmacies and pharmacists are currently considering geography as a ‘red flag.’ While red flags are not defined in statute or regulations or other official guidance, in the wake of the overprescribing and overdispensing contributing to the opioid epidemic, pharmacists have been directed to do so as a part of their corresponding responsibility, or due diligence to ensure that prescriptions are legitimate,” the letter from the telehealth coalition states.

‘An Unusual Distance’

Federal laws and regulations may not clearly define what a red flag is, but the onus is clearly put on pharmacies to catch them:

“[A] pharmacist or pharmacy may not dispense a prescription in the face of a red flag (i.e., a circumstance that does or should raise a reasonable suspicion as to the validity of a prescription) unless he or it takes steps to resolve the red flag and ensure that the prescription is valid.”

Under a 2022 opioid litigation settlement, drug distributors and big chain pharmacies agreed to tightly limit the supply of opioids and be on the lookout for suspicious orders. That includes patients with prescriptions for “highly diverted controlled substances” written by doctors from a zip code 50 miles or more from a pharmacy. Pharmacies with a high volume of those prescriptions risk having their drug supplies further restricted or cutoff.

DEA investigators and federal prosecutors have long targeted doctors and pharmacies that have out of state patients. In 2021, for example, DEA suspended the license of a Florida pharmacy that “repeatedly ignored obvious red flags of abuse or diversion,” including a high number of patients who traveled “an unusual distance” to obtain their prescriptions.

Contrary to popular belief, opioid diversion is rare. The DEA estimates that less than one percent of oxycodone (0.3%) and hydrocodone (0.42%) medications are lost, stolen or diverted.

Another example of a provider being red-flagged came in 2022, when DEA suspended the controlled substance license of Dr. David Bockoff, a California physician who treated many chronically ill patients from out of state who couldn’t find local providers.

Within days of Bockoff’s suspension, one of his patients and his wife died by suicide at their home in Georgia. A few weeks later, another patient died at her home in Arizona, apparently from complications caused by opioid withdrawal. Neither of those patients were using telehealth to see Dr. Bockoff, but their deaths highlight how red flags and heavy-handed oversight of medical providers can have serious consequences.    

“DEA must use this opportunity to make clear what their expectations are for pharmacists in filling telehealth prescriptions of controlled substances,” the letter from the telehealth coalition warns. “If DEA simply adds recordkeeping, reporting, or data requirements to the overwhelming workload pharmacies and pharmacists already face, access issues will only be exacerbated.”

Ageism: A Wake-Up Call for Baby Boomers

By Judith Graham, KFF Health News

The covid-19 pandemic would be a wake-up call for America, advocates for the elderly predicted: incontrovertible proof that the nation wasn’t doing enough to care for vulnerable older adults.

The death toll was shocking, as were reports of chaos in nursing homes and seniors suffering from isolation, depression, untreated illness, and neglect. Around 900,000 older adults have died of covid-19 to date, accounting for 3 of every 4 Americans who have perished in the pandemic.

But decisive actions that advocates had hoped for haven’t materialized. Today, most people — and government officials — appear to accept covid as a part of ordinary life.

Many seniors at high risk aren’t getting antiviral therapies for covid, and most older adults in nursing homes aren’t getting updated vaccines. Efforts to strengthen care quality in nursing homes and assisted living centers have stalled amid debate over costs and the availability of staff. And only a small percentage of people are masking or taking other precautions in public despite a new wave of covid, flu, and respiratory syncytial virus infections hospitalizing and killing seniors.

In the last week of 2023 and the first two weeks of 2024 alone, 4,810 people 65 and older lost their lives to covid — a group that would fill more than 10 large airliners — according to data provided by the CDC. But the alarm that would attend plane crashes is notably absent. (During the same period, the flu killed an additional 1,201 seniors, and RSV killed 126.)

“It boggles my mind that there isn’t more outrage,” said Alice Bonner, 66, senior adviser for aging at the Institute for Healthcare Improvement. “I’m at the point where I want to say, ‘What the heck? Why aren’t people responding and doing more for older adults?’”

It’s a good question. Do we simply not care?

I put this big-picture question, which rarely gets asked amid debates over budgets and policies, to health care professionals, researchers, and policymakers who are older themselves and have spent many years working in the aging field. Here are some of their responses.

Pandemic Made Ageism Worse

Prejudice against older adults is nothing new, but “it feels more intense, more hostile” now than previously, said Karl Pillemer, 69, a professor of psychology and gerontology at Cornell University.

“I think the pandemic helped reinforce images of older people as sick, frail, and isolated — as people who aren’t like the rest of us,” he said. “And human nature being what it is, we tend to like people who are similar to us and be less well disposed to ‘the others.’”

“A lot of us felt isolated and threatened during the pandemic. It made us sit there and think, ‘What I really care about is protecting myself, my wife, my brother, my kids, and screw everybody else,’” said W. Andrew Achenbaum, 76, the author of nine books on aging and a professor emeritus at Texas Medical Center in Houston.

In an environment of “us against them,” where everybody wants to blame somebody, Achenbaum continued, “who’s expendable? Older people who aren’t seen as productive, who consume resources believed to be in short supply. It’s really hard to give old people their due when you’re terrified about your own existence.”

Although covid continues to circulate, disproportionately affecting older adults, “people now think the crisis is over, and we have a deep desire to return to normal,” said Edwin Walker, 67, who leads the Administration on Aging at the Department of Health and Human Services. He spoke as an individual, not a government representative.

The upshot is “we didn’t learn the lessons we should have,” and the ageism that surfaced during the pandemic hasn’t abated, he observed.

“Everyone loves their own parents. But as a society, we don’t value older adults or the people who care for them,” said Robert Kramer, 74, co-founder and strategic adviser at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care.

The message to older adults is: ‘Your time has passed, give up your seat at the table, stop consuming resources, fall in line.’
— Anne Montgomery, Health Policy Expert

Kramer thinks boomers are reaping what they have sown. “We have chased youth and glorified youth. When you spend billions of dollars trying to stay young, look young, act young, you build in an automatic fear and prejudice of the opposite.”

Combine the fear of diminishment, decline, and death that can accompany growing older, with the trauma and fear that arose during the pandemic.

“I think covid has pushed us back in whatever progress we were making in addressing the needs of our rapidly aging society. It has further stigmatized aging,” said John Rowe, 79, professor of health policy and aging at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.

“The message to older adults is: ‘Your time has passed, give up your seat at the table, stop consuming resources, fall in line,’” said Anne Montgomery, 65, a health policy expert at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. She believes, however, that baby boomers can “rewrite and flip that script if we want to and if we work to change systems that embody the values of a deeply ageist society.”

Integration, Not Separation, Is Needed

The best way to overcome stigma is “to get to know the people you are stigmatizing,” said G. Allen Power, 70, a geriatrician and the chair in aging and dementia innovation at the Schlegel-University of Waterloo Research Institute for Aging in Canada. “But we separate ourselves from older people so we don’t have to think about our own aging and our own mortality.”

The solution: “We have to find ways to better integrate older adults in the community as opposed to moving them to campuses where they are apart from the rest of us,” Power said. “We need to stop seeing older people only through the lens of what services they might need and think instead of all they have to offer society.”

That point is a core precept of the National Academy of Medicine’s 2022 report Global Roadmap for Healthy Longevity. Older people are a “natural resource” who “make substantial contributions to their families and communities,” the report’s authors write in introducing their findings.

Those contributions include financial support to families, caregiving assistance, volunteering, and ongoing participation in the workforce, among other things.

“When older people thrive, all people thrive,” the report concludes.

That’s a message Kramer conveys in classes he teaches at the University of Southern California, Cornell, and other institutions.

“You have far more at stake in changing the way we approach aging than I do,” he tells his students. “You are far more likely, statistically, to live past 100 than I am. If you don’t change society’s attitudes about aging, you will be condemned to lead the last third of your life in social, economic, and cultural irrelevance.”

As for himself and the baby boom generation, Kramer thinks it’s “too late” to effect the meaningful changes he hopes the future will bring.

“I suspect things for people in my generation could get a lot worse in the years ahead,” Pillemer said. “People are greatly underestimating what the cost of caring for the older population is going to be over the next 10 to 20 years, and I think that’s going to cause increased conflict.”

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues.

Long Covid Linked to Chronic Pain Conditions

By Pat Anson, PNN Editor

People with chronic pain conditions such as fibromyalgia, chronic fatigue, migraine and irritable bowel syndrome are significantly more likely to have symptoms of Long Covid after a COVID-19 infection, according to a large new analysis.

Researchers at the University of Michigan analyzed electronic health records of over two million Americans and found that the risk of having Long Covid symptoms was higher in people with a chronic overlapping pain condition (COPC).  

Over half the patients (58.6%) with a COPC and a diagnosis of COVID-19 had symptoms of Long COVID, compared to only a third (33.6%) of those without a COPC.

“We hypothesized we’d see an increase in pain and fatigue because it’s something we’ve seen in the past with other infectious diseases, like the SARS outbreak in 2002,” said lead author Rachel Bergmans, PhD, a Research Assistant Professor at U-M’s Department of Anesthesiology, Chronic Pain and Fatigue Research Center. “A big predictor of future pain is having had pain in the past.”

Findings from the retrospective cohort study, published in the journal Pain, do not establish a definitive cause that links chronic pain with Long Covid – only an association.

It’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation. Many of the symptoms of Long Covid mirror those of COPCs – such as brain fog, chronic fatigue, headache and body pain – so it’s not clear which condition developed first. Interestingly, Long Covid symptoms were found in 24% of patients with a COPC who were not diagnosed with COVID-19.  

That finding could be explained by a relatively new concept in pain research called neuroplasticity or nociplastic pain – chronic pain that lingers and becomes heightened in the brain and central nervous system (CNS) long after the initial injury heals. 

“With nociplastic pain, some people have what you might call a pain setting turned up in their central nervous system. There’s evidence showing that infections, trauma, and stress can be a trigger for nociplastic pain features and related symptoms,” said Bergmans.

Nociplastic pain could also explain the cognitive dysfunction and other symptoms caused by Long Covid – known technically as post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). The basket of symptoms now collectively known as Long Covid may have existed before COVID-19 even came along. In 2022, the CDC estimated that 18 million American adults had Long Covid.

“The onset of long COVID features was relatively common regardless of acute COVID exposure. In addition, those with pre-existing COPCs had an increased risk of being diagnosed with long COVID features. These findings reinforce the likelihood that nociplastic pain is a key mechanism in long COVID and can inform precision medicine therapies that avoid the pitfalls of viewing long COVID exclusively in the framework of infectious disease,” researchers concluded.

“For clinicians who treat people with long COVID, it may be helpful to review the medical record and see whether someone had a pre-existing COPC diagnosis before long COVID onset.”

Bergmans and all of her co-authors are either consultants or employees of Tonix Pharmaceuticals, a company that is developing new non-opioid treatments for fibromyalgia.

New Covid Variant Leading Surge in Respiratory Illness

By Julie Appleby, KFF Health News

It’s winter, that cozy season that brings crackling fireplaces, indoor gatherings — and a wave of respiratory illness. Nearly four years since the pandemic emerged, people are growing weary of dealing with it, but the virus is not done with us.

Nationally, a sharp uptick in emergency room visits and hospitalizations for covid-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, began in mid-December and appears to be gaining momentum.

Here are a few things to know this time around:

What’s Circulating Now?

The covid virus is continually changing, and a recent version is rapidly climbing the charts. Even though it appeared only in September, the variant known as JN.1, a descendant of omicron, is rapidly spreading, representing between 39% to half of the cases, according to pre-holiday stats from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Lab data indicates that the updated vaccines, as well as existing covid rapid tests and medical treatments, are effective with this latest iteration. More good news is that it “does not appear to pose additional risks to public health beyond that of other recent variants,” according to the CDC.

Even so, new covid hospitalizations — 34,798 for the week that ended Dec. 30 — are trending upward, although rates are still substantially lower than last December’s tally. It’s early in the season, though. Levels of virus in wastewater — one indicator of how infections are spreading — are “very high,” exceeding the levels seen this time last year.

And don’t forget, other nasty bugs are going around. More than 20,000 people were hospitalized for influenza the week ending Dec. 30, and the CDC reports that RSV remains elevated in many areas.

“The numbers so far are definitely going in the not-so-good direction,” said Ziyad Al-Aly, the chief of the research and development service at the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Healthcare System and a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis. “We’re likely to see a big uptick in January now that everyone is back home from the holidays.”

Milder Cases and Fewer Deaths

Certainly, compared with the first covid winter, things are better now. Far fewer people are dying or becoming seriously ill, with vaccines and prior infections providing some immunity and reducing severity of illness.

Even compared with last winter, when omicron was surging, the situation is better. New hospitalizations, for example, are about one-third of what they were around the 2022 holidays. Weekly deaths dropped slightly the last week of December to 839 and are also substantially below levels from a year ago.

“The ratio of mild disease to serious clearly has changed,” said William Schaffner, a professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee.

Even so, the definition of “mild” is broad, basically referring to anything short of being sick enough to be hospitalized.

While some patients may have no more than the sniffles, others experiencing “mild” covid can be “miserable for three to five days,” Schaffner said.

How Will This Affect My Day-to-Day Life?

“Am I going to be really sick? Do I have to mask up again?” It is important to know the basics.

For starters, symptoms of the covid variants currently circulating will likely be familiar — such as a runny nose, sore throat, cough, fatigue, fever, and muscle aches.

So if you feel ill, stay home, said Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. “It can make a big difference.”

Dust off those at-home covid test kits, check the extended expiration dates on the FDA website, and throw away the ones that have aged out. Tests can be bought at most pharmacies and, if you haven’t ordered yours yet, free test kits are still available through a federal program at covid.gov.

Test more than once, especially if your symptoms are mild. The at-home rapid tests may not detect covid infection in the first couple of days, according to the FDA, which recommends using “multiple tests over a certain time period, such as two to three days.”

With all three viruses, those most at risk include the very young, older adults, pregnant people, and those with compromised immune systems or underlying diseases, including cancer or heart problems. But those without high-risk factors can also be adversely affected.

While mask-wearing has dropped in most places, you may start to see more people wearing them in public spaces, including stores, public transit or entertainment venues.

Although a federal mask mandate is unlikely, health officials and hospitals in at least four states — California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and New York — have again told staff and patients to don masks. Such requirements were loosened last year when the public health emergency officially ended.

Such policies are advanced through county-level directives. The CDC data indicates that, nationally, about 46.7% of counties are seeing moderate to high hospital admission rates of covid.

“We are not going to see widespread mask mandates as our population will not find that acceptable,” Schaffner noted. “That said, on an individual basis, mask-wearing is a very intelligent and reasonable thing to do as an additional layer of protection.”

The N95, KN95, and KF94 masks are the most protective. Cloth and paper are not as effective.

And, finally, if you haven’t yet been vaccinated with an updated covid vaccine or gotten a flu shot, it’s not too late. There are also new vaccines and monoclonal antibodies to protect against RSV recommended for certain populations, which include older adults, pregnant people, and young children.

Generally, flu peaks in midwinter and runs into spring. Covid, while not technically seasonal, has higher rates in winter as people crowd together indoors.

“If you haven’t received vaccines,” Schaffner said, “we urge you to get them and don’t linger.”

Repeat Infections

People who have dodged covid entirely are in the minority.

At the same time, repeat infections are common. Fifteen percent of respondents to a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll said they’d had covid two or three times. A Canadian survey released in December found 1 in 5 residents said they had gotten covid more than once as of last June.

Aside from the drag of being sick and missing work or school for days, debate continues over whether repeat infections pose smaller or larger risks of serious health effects. There are no definitive answers, although experts continue to study the issue.

Two research efforts suggest repeat infections may increase a person’s chances of developing serious illness or even long covid — which is defined various ways but generally means having one or more effects lingering for a month or more following infection. The precise percentage of cases — and underlying factors — of long covid and why people get it are among the many unanswered questions about the condition. However, there is a growing consensus among researchers that vaccination is protective.

Still, the VA’s Al-Aly said a study he co-authored that was published in November 2022 found that getting covid more than once raises an “additional risk of problems in the acute phase, be it hospitalization or even dying,” and makes a person two times as likely to experience long covid symptoms.

The Canadian survey also found a higher risk of long covid among those who self-reported two or more infections. Both studies have their limitations: Most of the 6 million in the VA database were male and older, and the data studied came from the first two years of the pandemic, so some of it reflected illnesses from before vaccines became available. The Canadian survey, although more recent, relied on self-reporting of infections and conditions, which may not be accurate.

Still, Al-Aly and other experts say taking preventive steps, such as getting vaccinated and wearing a mask in higher-risk situations, can hedge your bets.

“Even if in a prior infection you dodged the bullet of long covid,” Al-Aly said, “it doesn’t’ mean you will dodge the bullet every single time.”

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues.

Evidence Should Be Updated for Covid-19 Treatment

By Dr. Lynora Saxinger, Undark Magazine

Strong science, particularly vaccine development, helped us steer our way through the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, as the pandemic recedes, it’s time to hold drug companies accountable for the treatments they’ve developed.

The evidence for these medications has not kept pace with major changes in the nature of the Covid-19 pandemic, and updated studies should be required to maintain approval for these very profitable drugs.

The Covid-19 drug development battlefield is littered with 479 failed or inactive drugs, while 358 are still in clinical or preclinical trials, according to a tracker maintained by the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, a trade group.

The only oral Covid-19 therapy approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that is recommended for first line outpatient use is Pfizer’s Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir-ritonavir), a two-drug combination that stops the SARS-CoV-2 virus from replicating in the body.

Hailed as a game changer, Paxlovid is a very good antiviral drug that has saved many lives, and its incredibly rapid development was a feat of science.

The major study leading to its approval, called the EPIC-HR trial, showed that it reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by an impressive 89 percent in high-risk, unvaccinated people.

But there is a lack of high-quality research on how Paxlovid affects outcomes beyond severe Covid — such as duration of illness, how the drug affects transmission, and whether it prevents long Covid. Nevertheless, some physicians are promoting the drug for these uses based on weak, inconsistent data.

pfizer image

The stakes are high: If we fail to set a requirement for well-designed studies of Paxlovid’s impact on all concerns besides hospitalization and death, we will be setting up a slow-moving, disastrous recreation of mistakes made with drugs for other diseases such as influenza.

Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, the explosive, unorganized growth of clinical trials for treatments was intended to save lives from this fearsome new disease. But many trials were small and of low quality, with a few exceptional trials providing much of our good data. In that initial desperate push for Covid-19 treatments, experimental, everything-but-the-kitchen-sink approaches became widely used.

Ivermectin Controversy

The case of ivermectin is instructive: This antiparasitic drug was used in tremendous volumes based on poor quality and sometimes outright fraudulent data, despite advice against its use from the FDA and in formal treatment guidelines. Social media amplification of the increasingly dubious evidence base led to a near-delusional belief in its benefit — and impressive profits for some opportunistic doctors.

A few well-coordinated and well-designed trials up front would have shortened the controversy, saved costs, and avoided duplicated effort of smaller low-quality trials. Most importantly, showing it to be ineffective earlier may have prevented the ensuing social media crusade, perhaps allowing some high-risk people to accept evidence-supported treatments like Paxlovid and the intravenous antiviral remdesivir rather than requesting, or even suing hospitals, to administer ivermectin.

Covid-19’s infection outcomes changed unusually rapidly across waves of the pandemic, which meant that studies could be outdated in months if they did not reflect the current viral strains and population immune responses. Data collection in the EPIC-HR study, which still guides treatment with Paxlovid, took place in 2021 when hospitalization rates were high, many were unvaccinated (including all trial participants), the viral strains were different than today, and the main outcome of interest in many communities was “flattening the curve,” or preventing hospitalization.

Now, almost everyone has been vaccinated, infected, or both. In a recent study, 96.4 percent of U.S. blood donors had Covid-19 antibodies by September 2022. The overall risk of hospitalization and death has also decreased significantly.

A Different Disease

Essentially, we are now dealing with a different disease. We are more focused on outcomes such as time lost from work, transmission risk, and long Covid risk. Yet there is almost no direct evidence about Paxlovid’s effect on these outcomes.

Paxlovid was approved for the treatment of mild to moderate Covid-19 in adults at high risk of developing severe disease. However, physicians and pharmacists have told me, it is increasingly being prescribed off-label for lower risk patients. This contention is supported by a recent U.S.-based preprint showing that 42 percent of more than 111,000 Paxlovid recipients had no major medical comorbidities, with treatment eligibility defined by having at least one risk factor for severe Covid-19.

Some physicians are extrapolating from hamster studies and lab data to suggest it reduces Covid-19 transmission. And they’re prescribing it to reduce long Covid risk based on very weak studies that analyzed administrative databases for Covid-19 complications rather than tracking long Covid symptoms in treated and untreated patients.

This matters because Paxlovid treatment for people who are not high risk has not shown significant benefit. One still unpublished randomized trial of lower-risk patients was terminated because low rates of hospitalization overall (in treated and untreated people) made it impossible to see a benefit.

Even in higher-risk groups, a recent meta-analysis of observational studies has shown very little absolute reduction of mortality, and no benefit in such patients under age 60. At the same time, people taking Paxlovid face possible side effects, drug interactions, and volatile drug pricing. They do not know if Paxlovid is worth all of that. They don’t know if the drug will reduce transmission to others, if they are less likely to get severely ill, if they will need time off work, or if it will spare them from long Covid.

Tamiflu Questions

Infectious diseases specialists like myself are experiencing an alarming sense of déjà vu. Tamiflu (oseltamivir), a treatment for influenza, was licensed in 1999 with data showing a modest benefit in reducing illness by one day. The reviewers noted that a “more definitive demonstration of clinical or public health relevance” would require additional data.

But 24 years later, we are not farther ahead — important questions about Tamiflu remain unanswered, with longstanding debates about the benefit of the drug and a false advertising lawsuit that went on for nearly 10 years before being dropped in July. The guidelines for the use of Tamiflu in influenza vary tremendously because of varied interpretation of a poor evidence base, and newer studies call its use as an influenza treatment into question. Even so, in its first 15 years on the market, Tamiflu made $18 billion in sales.

It is hard to stop a prescribing practice once it has become the norm, despite inadequate data. This is a recognized driver of cost increases in health care.

Pharmaceutical companies play a pivotal role in the research and development of effective therapies, and their lifesaving contributions during the Covid-19 pandemic have been commendable. However, the major investments these companies make in R&D should not give them free rein to market high-cost, high-volume drugs of public health importance without continued scrutiny of their effectiveness if the initial registration studies no longer stand because of changes in the disease.

Some bold, novel options could help address this gap in evidence. In exceptional circumstances (such as pandemics), pharmaceutical companies could be required to conduct studies to reassess a drug’s effectiveness after it has entered the market if conditions have meaningfully changed since the initial trials.

Another option could require companies to put a small portion of drug profits towards funding well-designed, independent trials so that crucial, commercially successful drugs would be part of ongoing studies. The FDA and other agencies should judiciously require and support such studies that could help guide treatment decisions, while balancing the need to support appropriate research and new drug development.

The medical community has responsibility, too: Professional societies that draft treatment guidelines must take a more consistently assertive stance in advising against uses for which there is insufficient evidence, rather than leaving it open to prescriber judgment. Both prescribers and potential patients need to accept and use evidence to help sustain health care systems, and lobby for changes needed to define the best treatments for people with Covid-19.

We are at a unique juncture in the fight against Covid-19, as fear gives way to complacency — and the path forward is scientific rigor. Failing to mandate high-quality evidence for treatment choices may lead us back down the path of inadequately researched treatments, opinion-driven guidelines, and wasted resources.

Pfizer has raked in about $20 billion dollars in revenue from Paxlovid alone over the last two years. This sum is nearly half of the National Institutes of Health’s entire budget for 2022. It is not surprising that the company has not voluntarily started additional trials after approval based on the stellar results in that first, now-irrelevant trial.

In the wake of the pandemic, we have an opportunity to improve both what we are doing, and how we may address research challenges in a future crisis. Paxlovid’s price is set to increase — from $530 to $1,390 before insurance — next year, but there is no corresponding increase in our knowledge of its value. The cost of this information gap will be very high, for both individuals and health care systems.

Lynora Saxinger, MD, is a journalist, infectious disease physician, and professor at the University of Alberta who headed a Covid evidence synthesis group during the pandemic. She is currently a Fellow in Journalism and Health Impact at the Dalla Lana School for Public Health.

This article was originally published by Undark, a non-profit, editorially independent online magazine covering the complicated and often fractious intersection of science and society. You can read the original article here.