Are 1 in 10 Americans Really Using Illicit Opioids?
/By Crystal Lindell
A new study claims to have found that nearly 11% of Americans reported using illicit opioids in 2024, with 7.5% of them using illicit fentanyl.
It's a startling claim, in large part because those numbers are significantly higher than what's been reported in previous research. When the National Survey on Drug Use and Health asked about illicit fentanyl use in 2022, they found that just 0.3% of American adults used it in the past year
The study by researchers at the RAND corporation and USC led to a number of splashy headlines, including one in U.S. News and World Report reading: "U.S. Illicit Opioid Use Could Be 20 Times Higher Than Previously Estimated"
That is indeed a pretty striking claim – which is a large reason I am so skeptical of the research.
How did the study authors arrive at those figures? They developed and fielded a survey with Respondi, an online platform often used in academic research. So essentially, they did an online survey of 1,515 adults.
Participants were asked about their use of nonprescription opioids within the past 12 months, with heroin and illicitly manufactured fentanyl given as examples.
Among the respondents, they found that 166 (10.96%) reported illicit opioid use and 114 (7.5%) said they used illicit fentanyl.
While I understand that population data is often collected with a relatively small sample size, it feels rushed to claim that 7.5% of adults used illicit fentanyl based on responses from 114 people in an online survey.
It feels equally rushed to claim that because 166 people reported illicit opioid use, that must mean that 11% of the population did so.
There are about 262 million adults in the United States. If those survey numbers are accurate, that would mean 19.7 million Americans are using illicit fentanyl. And 28.8 million are using illicit opioids. That’s a lot of people.
Overdose Deaths Declining
Keep in mind that the CDC just reported that U.S. overdose deaths fell by nearly 27% in 2024, the largest annual decline since they started tracking overdoses 45 years ago.
Of the 80,391 drug deaths reported in 2024, the CDC estimates that 48,422 of those deaths involved synthetic opioids, primarily fentanyl. That’s nearly 28,000 fewer fentanyl deaths than the year before.
How can fentanyl deaths be declining when so many Americans claim they used the potent and often deadly street drug?
The numbers just don’t add up. They suggest that illicit fentanyl isn’t nearly as dangerous as we’ve been led to believe, although I doubt that that’s the point the study authors were hoping to make.
The RAND and USC researchers say their findings add to evidence that the CDC may significantly underestimate illicit drug use and that new methods are necessary to keep better track of them.
“Estimates of illicit opioid use are rare and typically are available only years after the information is collected, limiting our ability to monitor trends on a near-term basis,” says lead author David Powell, PhD, a senior economist and Professor of Policy Analysis at RAND. “Our study offers a method to quickly and repeatedly monitor illicit opioid prevalence at low cost.”
All of this matters because studies like this are often used to punish people who use any opioids – both legal and illegal.
For example, if 11% of the population truly is using illicit opioids, then the medical community may use that statistic to claim that opioid prescribing is still too high and that too many prescription opioids are finding their way onto the black market.
They might also claim more public funding is needed for the addiction treatment industry. Or that the overdose reversal drug naloxone should be required for anyone getting an opioid prescription.
There’s also the prevailing myth that prescription opioids are what lead people to use fentanyl and other street drugs, a claim that the RAND/USC researchers believe is true.
“As the opioid crisis has evolved, attention to the role of prescription opioids has waned, even though overdose deaths from prescription opioids remain high and prescription opioids may operate as critical pathways to illicit opioid use,” they reported.
That’s why it is so important for researchers to be more cautious in how they frame their results, and it’s also important for the media to be skeptical of research that shows extreme outlier data.
Maybe 11% of people are using illicit opioids, and 7.5% are using illicit fentanyl. Both of those things could very well be true. But I think additional research replicating those results is needed before regulators and opioid prohibitionists act on them – especially if that means further restricting access to pain medication.