National Safety Council's Misleading Report on Opioids

By Roger Chriss, PNN Columnist

This week the National Safety Council released a report claiming that “for the first time on record, your odds of dying from an accidental opioid overdose are greater than dying in a motor vehicle crash.”

Media outlets from The New York Times to NPR were quick to repeat that claim.

“The opioid crisis in the United States has become so grim that Americans are now likelier to die of an overdose than in a vehicle crash,” The Times reported.

This is incorrect. The average American is vastly more likely to die in a car crash than of an opioid overdose. The reason is simple: the typical American does not have any opioids to overdose on.

Good practice in epidemiology and public health research is to look at the “population at risk.” This population represents those people who would be counted if they are affected by whatever risk is being studied.

The population at risk for opioid overdose consists of people exposed to opioids, intentionally or otherwise. Within this population are people with varying degrees of risk, from low-risk in the form of a single dose of opioid medication in a hospital to high-risk in the form of heroin injection.

By contrast, the population at risk for car crash death is people who are exposed to car rides, whether as drivers or passengers. Needless to say, this is a very broad population that includes most Americans.

These two populations are not the same. There is some overlap between the two, but that does not mean they can be lumped together for the purpose of a generalized conclusion. Instead, epidemiological investigations look at a target population, that is to say the group of people about which conclusions will be drawn.

Again, these are distinct populations. The target population for reducing car crash fatalities is not the same as the target population for reducing opioid overdose fatalities.

As a result, a general comparison between the odds of dying of an opioid overdose versus a car crash is not statistically meaningful. Moreover, such comparisons misconstrue risk management and may lead to poor allocation of resources.

For instance, in 2017 there were 2,008 fatal overdoses with Benadryl and 1,250 with tramadol, according to the CDC. But this does not mean that Benadryl is more dangerous than tramadol. Far more people use Benadryl than tramadol, and usually without a prescription or monitoring. Ranking one as inherently more dangerous than the other would not lead to good public health policy.

Further, the risk of opioid overdose rises when people use other substances like alcohol, benzodiazepines or cocaine. Similarly, the risk of fatal car crashes rises when driving under the influence or other risky driving behaviors are involved. Because most people do not do these things, they are at the low end of the range of risk in the population at risk.

State laws like California’s AB 2760 requiring naloxone co-prescribing may help reduce opioid overdoses, but only if they reach people at greater risk. And resources committed to people at low risk may be taking resources away from people at high risk.

So although the National Safety Council’s report may be technically accurate, it is flawed and misleading. Most people are much more likely to die in a car crash because they are exposed to that risk on a regular basis. Only a small number of people are more likely to die of an opioid overdose, and risk reduction strategies need to be directed to them.

The NSC is a nonprofit that promotes itself as a "data-driven organization," but this is not the first time it has provided misleading information about opioids.  As PNN has reported, an NSC memorial to opioid victims that toured the country last year overestimated the number of Americans who overdosed on prescription opioids by about 25 percent.

Good public health policy involves assessing the relative risks for the population at risk and adopting effective harm reduction policies. Sweeping statements that confuse a population at risk with the population at large can only lead to bad policies. And we’ve seen enough of those.  

Roger Chriss lives with Ehlers Danlos syndrome and is a proud member of the Ehlers-Danlos Society. Roger is a technical consultant in Washington state, where he specializes in mathematics and research.

The information in this column should not be considered as professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. It is for informational purposes only and represents the author’s opinions alone. It does not inherently express or reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of Pain News Network.

Memorial Misrepresents Overdoses Linked to Rx Opioids

By Pat Anson, Editor

A provocative memorial to overdose victims makes its debut in Washington DC this week, where it is likely to draw more attention to opioid addiction and the overdose crisis.  

Modeled after the Vietnam Veterans Memorial, the National Safety Council’s traveling exhibit features a wall of 22,000 engraved white pills, each pill representing the face of someone who died from a prescription opioid overdose in 2015. To dramatize the point, a new pill is etched at the exhibit every 24 minutes, to represent how often a person supposedly dies from an overdose of pain medication.

Prescribed to Death: A Memorial to the Victims of the Opioid Crisis has already appeared in Chicago, Pittsburgh and Atlanta, and will be on display at President’s Park near the White House from April 11 to 18.

"We hope that putting a face on the statistics of the thousands lost to this epidemic inspires a greater sense of urgency among all stakeholders to continue their work to eliminate preventable drug overdose deaths," Deborah Hersman, president and CEO of the National Safety Council (NSC), said in a statement. 

NATIONAL SAFETY COUNCIL IMAGE

But like nearly everything else having to do with the overdose crisis – the exhibit misrepresents and exaggerates how many people actually died from prescription opioids, while ignoring the larger role played by illegal opioids and other black market drugs, which now account for about two-thirds of all overdoses.  

Twenty-two thousand people did not die from prescription opioids in 2015. According to revised estimates by the CDC, there were 17,536 deaths involving opioid medication that year. And some critics believe the actual number is even lower.

But that’s not stopping the NSC and the White House from promoting the memorial and its false statistics.

"The decision to bring the memorial to Washington is part of President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump's efforts to raise awareness about the crisis and to make us each part of solution," said Kellyanne Conway, counselor to the President. 

An NSC video shared by the White House on its Twitter account claims that “commonly prescribed pain medications are at the root of the crisis” and that “92,000,000 Americans were prescribed opioids in one year. 22,000 of them died from an overdose.”

‘Significantly Inflated’ Estimates

Where does the 22,000 number come from? It was not taken out of thin air or invented -- at least not by the National Safety Council. The NSC says it is based on CDC mortality data from 2015 -- when 22,598 overdoses were initially blamed on opioid pain relievers.

However, as PNN has reported, CDC researchers recently admitted that number and many other overdose estimates are wrong, because they included deaths involving illicit fentanyl and other synthetic opioids that “significantly inflate estimates.”

A more accurate number to blame on opioid pain medication, according to one CDC critic, is 16,610 overdoses – a number that has remained relatively stable over the last few years.  It’s also about 25% lower than the number of pills on display in the NSC exhibit.

When PNN asked the NSC to explain the discrepancy, we were emailed a nonsensical response by a spokesperson that only bends the truth further:

“The number of pills on the wall – 22,000 – represents the number of people who overdosed on prescribed opioids or prescribed fentanyl. However, some of the faces represent people who eventually overdosed on heroin. All of these addictions, however, began with prescribed medications.”

For starters, the notion that all addictions begin with prescriptions is -- to put it kindly -- misinformed. Toxicology tests also cannot differentiate between prescription fentanyl and illicit fentanyl, although the latter is now believed to be responsible for more overdoses than any other drug. And why would the faces of people who overdosed on heroin be included in a memorial to victims who died from prescription opioids?

The National Safety Council is a nonprofit that promotes itself as a "data-driven organization" focused on preventing unnecessary injuries and deaths. It was established by labor unions in 1913 to improve workplace safety but is now funded largely by corporations, including the insurance industry.

For several years the NSC has had an aggressive marketing campaign against the use of opioid medication.

"Opioids do not kill pain. They kill people," says NSC medical advisor Donald Teater, MD, on the organization’s website.

The NSC recently released a 32-page report called “Prescription Nation 2018” that calls prescription opioids “a gateway drug to heroin” that were "liberally prescribed, setting the stage for a flood of people suffering from opioid use disorder, overdose and death.”

An NSC analysis found that just 13 states and Washington DC have implemented adequate policies to prevent opioid overdoses, such as adopting prescribing guidelines and mandating prescriber education. The report says 29 states are lagging in adopting such policies and 8 of them are failing. 

The organization did not respond to a request for an interview.