Can Aching Joints Predict the Weather?

By Michelle Spear

For centuries, people have claimed that their aching joints can predict changes in the weather, often reporting increased discomfort before rain or cold fronts. Given the scale and duration, there is a sense of legitimacy to these anecdotes – but this phenomenon remains scientifically contentious.

From shifts in barometric pressure to temperature fluctuations, many theories attempt to explain how environmental factors might influence joint pain. But is there an anatomical basis for this claim, or is it simply an enduring weather-related myth? Are our joints any more reliable than the Met Office?

At the heart of this debate lies barometric pressure, also known as atmospheric pressure – the force exerted by air molecules in the Earth’s atmosphere. While invisible, air has mass, and the “weight” pressing down on us fluctuates with altitude and weather systems.

Higher barometric pressure often signals fair-weather conditions with clear skies and calm winds, whereas lower pressure typically precedes unsettled weather, such as cloudy skies, precipitation and humidity.

Moveable joints are intricate structures cushioned by synovial fluid, the viscous liquid that lubricates joints, and encased in capsules rich in nerve endings. In healthy joints, these components should allow smooth, pain-free movement. However, when joints are compromised by cartilage damage (as in osteoarthritis) or inflammation (as in rheumatoid arthritis), even subtle changes in the environment may be acutely felt.

One leading hypothesis suggests that changes in barometric pressure may directly influence joint discomfort. When atmospheric pressure drops ahead of storms, it can allow inflamed tissues within joints to expand slightly, increasing stress on surrounding nerves and amplifying pain. Conversely, rapid increases in pressure, characteristic of fair-weather systems, may compress already sensitive tissues, leading to discomfort in some people.

Scientific studies offer some support for these claims, though results remain mixed. For instance, a 2007 study published in the American Journal of Medicine found a slight but significant correlation between dropping barometric pressure and increased knee pain in osteoarthritis patients. However, this pattern is not universally observed across all joint conditions.

A 2011 systematic review in Arthritis Research & Therapy examined the relationship between weather and pain in rheumatoid arthritis patients. It revealed highly variable responses: while some people reported increased pain under low-pressure conditions, others noted no change. A few even experienced discomfort during high-pressure fronts.

More recently, a 2019 citizen-science project called Cloudy with a chance of pain used app-based pain tracking to explore this connection. The study found a modest association between falling pressure and heightened joint pain, but it also highlighted substantial individual differences in how people perceive weather-related pain.

These findings suggest that while changes in barometric pressure may influence joint pain for some, responses are far from uniform and depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the individual’s underlying joint condition and overall pain sensitivity.

Why Responses Differ

Barometric pressure rarely acts in isolation. Fluctuations in temperature and humidity often accompany pressure changes, complicating the picture.

Cold weather can have a pronounced effect on joints, particularly in people with existing joint conditions. Low temperatures cause muscles to contract and become stiffer, which can lead to reduced flexibility and a greater risk of strain or discomfort.

Ligaments, which connect bones to one another, and tendons, which anchor muscles to bones, may also lose some of their elasticity in colder conditions. This decreased pliability can make joint movement feel more restricted and exacerbate pain in conditions like arthritis.

Cold weather can also cause blood vessels to narrow — particularly in the extremities, as the body prioritises maintaining core temperature. This reduced blood flow can deprive affected areas of essential oxygen and nutrients, slowing the removal of metabolic waste products like lactic acid, which may accumulate in tissues and exacerbate inflammation and discomfort.

For people with inflammatory conditions, the reduced circulation can aggravate swelling and stiffness, especially in small joints like those in the fingers and toes.

Cold also slows the activity of synovial fluid. In lower temperatures, the fluid becomes less effective at reducing friction, which can heighten joint stiffness and make motion more painful, particularly for people with degenerative conditions such as osteoarthritis.

Sudden temperature changes may also play a role. Rapid shifts can challenge the body’s ability to adapt, which might worsen pain in people with chronic conditions. Similarly, high humidity can intensify sensations of heat or dampness in already inflamed areas, further complicating the experience of pain.

However, isolating a single variable – whether humidity, temperature or pressure –proves difficult because of the interplay of overlapping factors.

Responses to weather also depend on individual factors, including the extent of joint damage, overall pain sensitivity and psychological expectations. This variability makes it difficult to link a single meteorological factor to a biological response.

Still, the evidence suggests that people with joint conditions tend to be more attuned to environmental changes, particularly pressure fluctuations.

While the relationship between weather and joint pain remains an imperfect science, the collective evidence indicates that there may be some truth to the age-old belief. For those with chronic joint conditions, shifts in barometric pressure and accompanying weather changes might indeed serve as nature’s warning system – albeit one that’s far from foolproof.

Michelle Spear, PhD, is a Professor of Anatomy at the University of Bristol in the UK.

This article originally appeared in The Conversation and is republished with permission.

Why Autumn Weather Is Often Miserable for Pain Patients

Intellectually, I love the concept of a crisp autumn day. I love the idea of pumpkin spice lattes, crockpot chili, and cozy scarfs. But in practice, the intense temperature swings are pretty horrible for me every year.

The cool fall weather here in Northern Illinois is always devastating on my body. Indeed, my chronic pain has been 10/10 the last few days as the temperatures start their yearly drop, and it rains non-stop. 

It’s the same with spring too. Regardless of how much I’m longing for warmer weather every March, the shift from winter to summer means I spend most of the spring in too much pain to function. 

To me, it is obvious that these weather changes impact my pain. I’ve been dealing with it for more than a decade now. And every year, spring and autumn are especially bad. 

Surprisingly, the medical community still questions whether or not the link between weather and pain is real though – and if it is real, why it might be happening. 

“Research still hasn't confirmed a cause-and-effect link between weather and joint pain, though many people insist they can predict the weather based on such aches,” writes Toni Golen, MD, Editor in Chief of Harvard Women's Health Watch, in a 2022 article in Harvard Health,  

A 2015 study looked at whether daily weather conditions and changes in the weather influenced joint pain in older people with osteoarthritis in six European countries.

While they did find a causal link, they hesitated to call it a direct cause, saying that “the associations between day-to-day weather changes and pain do not confirm causation.”

In other words, researchers did not want to say outright that changes in the weather directly causes pain spikes. 

So I guess you’ll have to hear it from me instead: As a chronic pain patient, I can confirm that the effect is real, and it’s not in your head. Weather definitely causes pain spikes.

What might be causing it though? Golen explains that one theory is that changes in barometric pressure — which often happen as the weather changes — trigger pain in the joints. 

“Less air pressure surrounding the body can allow muscles, tendons, and other tissues around joints to expand,” she explains. “This can place pressure on joints, possibly leading to pain.”

Another theory is that cold, damp days make you more likely to do things that can worsen joint pain or stiffness, such as sitting on the couch too long watching movies. 

“Also, since you're expecting discomfort when the weather shifts, you may notice joint aches more than you would otherwise,” Golen adds. “To ward off weather-related joint pain, keep moving with regular exercise and stretching.”

I have to say, the second theory reads as a bit insulting to me. It sounds like health professionals are trying to find another way to blame patients for their pain. 

Personally, I also know that being sedentary is not the cause of my increased pain when the weather changes. That’s partly because when I wake up with pain in the morning, trying to shower and get out of the house quickly is likely to aggravate it. Also, as someone who works from home, I spend most of my days sitting down with a laptop and that usually doesn’t cause my pain to spike.  

As a chronic patient, I also don’t need a study to confirm my experience. I know weather changes cause a pain spike for me, and over the years I’ve learned to cope with it by accepting it. My life is set up so that most of the time, on bad pain days, I have the ability to rest as needed. 

When I first started having daily chronic pain, I would get very stressed about pain spikes, which would make them worse and harder to get under control. But now I know that keeping myself as calm as possible is the key to riding it out. 

I also know that it’s very likely that the pain will start to subside to more manageable levels after a couple of days at the most. And I know to take advantage of my low-pain days to get as much done as possible. In fact, I’m using one this week to write this column.

To me, the link between weather changes and pain spikes is so obvious, that I can’t even believe any doctors would still question it. If you’re among those struggling as the seasons change though, just know, I believe you.