DEA Proposes Cuts in Opioid Supply for Sixth Straight Year
/By Roger Chriss, PNN Columnist
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency is proposing more cuts in the supply of opioids and other controlled substances in 2022. If adopted, it would be the sixth consecutive year the DEA has reduced production quotas for prescription opioids and other Schedule I and II drugs under the Controlled Substances Act.
Specifically, the DEA is proposing a 5.4% reduction in the supply of oxycodone, 3.9% for hydrocodone, 19% for morphine and 5.4% for prescription fentanyl. That’s in addition to the significant cuts already made since 2017.
The DEA arrived at the quotas after consulting with the FDA, CDC, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), and individual states to assess the medical, industrial and scientific need for controlled substances. The DEA also relied extensively on data from prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) to identify “red flags” indicating the possible theft, illicit use and diversion of each substance.
Even though opioid prescribing has dropped significantly over the last decade, the DEA believes demand will fall even further in 2022.
“With regard to medical usage of schedule II opioids, FDA predicts levels of medical need for the United States will decline on average 18.88 percent between calendar years 2021 and 2022. These declines are expected to occur across a variety of schedule II opioids including fentanyl, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, oxycodone, and oxymorphone,” the DEA said in a statement published in the Federal Register.
The proposed opioid production quotas are the smallest in nearly two decades. The trend lines for several common Schedule II prescription opioids can be seen in the chart below. Since their peak in 2013, production quotas have fallen by 63% for oxycodone and 69% for hydrocodone.
Although the DEA maintains the “medical need” for opioids has declined, demand for healthcare has risen significantly. The U.S. population was 281 million in 2000 compared to 331 million today, and in the interim Americans have become older and less healthy, and surgical interventions for cancer and other diseases have become more common, as has trauma care.
In addition, the U.S. has been facing a pandemic for the past year and a half that increased the need for ICU with intubation, for which sedation with opioids is necessary. In 2020, the DEA raised its quotas for some substances because of this unanticipated demand.
In other words, the U.S. is trying to do more with less, trying to manage pain in a larger population with a higher disease burden while using fewer opioid analgesics.
The goal of these ongoing reductions is to address the overdose crisis. But as the CDC reported last week, the U.S. has seen over 96,000 drug fatalities in the 12-month period ending in March 2021. Some of this spike in deaths is a result of to the pandemic, but the ongoing saturation of the country with illicit fentanyl is clearly playing a key role. The DEA recently issued a public safety alert warning of a surge in counterfeit medication made with illicit fentanyl.
How much further the DEA can go with quota reductions remains to be seen. Surgical and cancer care have been greatly impacted, and rapid tapering of people on long-term opioid therapy is causing harm.
The DEA has not been forthcoming about its ultimate goals and the methods used to assess progress, as it continues to shrink the supply of opioids. At this rate, we will likely reach pre-1995 prescribing levels within another year.
To make a comment on the DEA’s proposed 2022 production quotas, click here. Comments must be received by November 17.
Roger Chriss lives with Ehlers Danlos syndrome and is a proud member of the Ehlers-Danlos Society. Roger is a technical consultant in Washington state, where he specializes in mathematics and research.
