By Pat Anson, PNN Editor

Despite chronic shortages of opioid pain medication around the country, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration is planning to further reduce the supply of oxycodone, hydrocodone, morphine and other opioids in 2024.

The DEA sets annual production quotas for opioids and other controlled substances after consulting with the Food and Drug Administration, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and individual states about their projected medical and research needs. If the proposed cuts are finalized next month, 2024 will be the 8th consecutive year that DEA reduced production quotas for opioid manufacturers.

“FDA predicts that levels of medical need for schedule II opioids in the United States in calendar year 2024 will decline on average 7.9 percent from calendar year 2023 levels. These declines are expected to occur across a variety of schedule II opioids including fentanyl, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, oxycodone, and oxymorphone,” DEA said in a public notice published in the Federal Register.

There will not be 7.9% cuts across the board for every opioid. The steepest cuts will be in the supply of codeine and prescription fentanyl, while production quotas for oxycodone and hydrocodone will be reduced only marginally.  

Proposed Cuts in 2024 Opioid Supply

- 8.3% Codeine  

- 7.6% Rx Fentanyl  

- 4.3% Morphine

- 2.1% Hydromorphone 

- 0.3% Oxycodone   

- 0.3% Hydrocodone

Since reaching their peak in 2015, DEA production quotas have been reduced by over 68% for oxycodone and nearly 73% for hydrocodone, the two most widely prescribed Schedule II opioids.

The primary goal of the DEA in cutting the supply is to reduce the risk of diversion, abuse and overdose, but there is little evidence the policy is working or even needed. Prescription opioid use has been cut in half in recent years, but overdose deaths have grown to record levels, fueled primarily by illicit fentanyl and other street drugs.

Fears about patients selling or diverting their opioid medication also appear overblown, as the DEA estimates the diversion risk for hydrocodone at only 0.31% and 0.28% for oxycodone. That means for every pill that’s sold or stolen, about 300 pills are used by the patient they were intended for.

Federal health agencies appear to have turned a blind eye to opioid shortages. For several months, the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP) has warned of shortages of immediate release oxycodone, oxycodone/acetaminophen tablets, and hydrocodone/acetaminophen tablets. But those shortages have not been publicly acknowledged by the DEA or FDA, and have not been added to the FDA’s drug shortage list.

More ADHD Meds, Cannabis and Psychedelics

The DEA and FDA have been more responsive to complaints of shortages of Adderall and other stimulants used to treat attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The DEA is modestly raising its production quotas for stimulants after the FDA predicted a 3.1% increase in their medical use in 2024.

“DEA is committed to ensuring that patients who need stimulant medications have access to them and to ensuring that these drugs are being prescribed thoughtfully and responsibly, and we will continue working with our partners inside and outside of government to do so,” DEA Administrator Ann Milgram wrote in a letter released this week. She said 17 out of 18 drug makers had agreed to increase their production of stimulants under existing 2023 quotas.

In addition to stimulants, the DEA is also raising 2024 production quotas for cannabis, psychedelics and hallucinogens in response to an “increased level of research and clinical trials” involving the Schedule I substances.

The DEA’s quota process may undergo significant changes in the years ahead. The agency wants to be “more nimble” in responding to shortages and increases in demand. To do that, it is seeking access to sales and inventory reports from drug makers to better assess the supply that is available.

“DEA believes that changes to reporting requirements are necessary to improve both the type of data collected and the timeliness of that data, allowing DEA to be more nimble in its administration of the quota program. Future regulatory changes may seek to address the lack of real-time inventory and sales data accessible to DEA, the lack of information on production lead times, and issues of timeliness,” the agency said.

“DEA also is considering methods by which it might increase transparency in its quota setting process. Future regulatory proposals may define additional steps, including such concepts as public notification and an opportunity for public input when prescribing rates for controlled substances deviate substantially from FDA's estimate of future use. Furthermore, DEA is considering regulatory changes which will authorize it to reduce a manufacturer's individual manufacturing or procurement quota in order to apportion it to another manufacturer.”

To leave a comment on the DEA’s 2024 production quotas, click here. Public comments must be submitted online or in writing on or before December 4, 2023.