By Roger Chriss, PNN Columnist

As U.S. opioid lawsuits wind down with multi billion dollar settlements, there are increasing calls for more measures to address the overdose crisis. The calls range from further tightening opioid prescribing practices to legalizing cannabis and other drugs, all in the hope of stemming the rising tide of addiction and overdoses.

The standard view of the crisis is of a simple system, described in mechanistic terms like supply and demand or “stock and flow.” There are a handful of policy levers, and pulling on a lever will hopefully create a proportional change in the crisis.

Obviously, this approach hasn’t worked. The U.S. has reduced opioid prescribing by over 40% and seen no improvements in overdoses. By contrast, Germany is the world’s second-largest user of prescription opioids and does not have an opioid crisis.

Many U.S. states have legalized cannabis, in part as a solution to the crisis. But in the wake of cannabis legalization there are even more overdose fatalities, to such an extent that cannabis is now viewed as possibly making the opioid crisis worse.

There are also claims that prohibition is the problem and that full drug legalization is the remedy. But the legal status of tobacco and alcohol can hardly be called a public health success.

Drug abuse does not occur in a social or technological vacuum. The development of the hypodermic syringe helped morphine and heroin become street drugs, the cigarette rolling machine enabled the modern tobacco disaster, and the advent of the vape pen and synthetic cannabinoids is causing new public health problems.

The Crisis Is Not an Epidemic

All of this suggests that the current understanding of the overdose crisis is mistaken. We’ve been treating the crisis as if it were an “epidemic” caused by a single pathogen, spread through one form of transmission, and treatable with one intervention. But the overdose crisis is not an epidemic in the strict sense of the word.

Instead, it is better to think of the world of drugs as resembling a tropical country with an abundance of parasites and pathogens. Such a country is beset with viral, bacterial and fungal threats coming from a vast variety of sources. With each season the threats shift, and over the years the threats change. But they are always there, and must always be addressed.

In such a country there is no one policy lever or regulatory dial that will control outcomes. Such a country is a highly complex nonlinear dynamical landscape that is very sensitive to small changes in fundamentally unpredictable ways. Moreover, the landscape will offer up novel threats and surprises far more frequently and less predictably than intuition would suggest.

As a result, even a small change in policy can easily have unexpected effects downstream, often unintended and maybe even tragic. For instance, public health policy meant to reign in prescribing for chronic pain has impacted cancer and palliative care. And tapering patients has resulted in more mental health crises and overdoses.

This conceptual difference means that simple solutions like fentanyl test strips or urine drug testing will not end the crisis. They may help on the margins, but to expect more is to misunderstand the nature of the crisis. And even if a bold stroke does help, it only does so briefly. And then the landscape offers new challenges that must be spotted swiftly and addressed adroitly.

The world of drugs can only be managed through comprehensive efforts at prevention, monitoring and treatment with support from local communities and society at large. Countries without an overdose crisis are notable not only for doing many things the U.S. does not, but also for pursuing their efforts consistently year after year.

The overdose crisis will keep evolving as more drugs are developed and delivered to an ever-changing world of drug use. Neither lawsuits nor legalization address the core of the crisis. In the U.S. there are too many charismatic crusaders brandishing simple solutions. But in public health there are very few heroes who understand the complex nature of the problem.

Roger Chriss lives with Ehlers Danlos syndrome and is a proud member of the Ehlers-Danlos Society. Roger is a technical consultant in Washington state, where he specializes in mathematics and research.