By Roger Chriss, PNN Columnist

The CDC announced this week that the U.S. has seen over 100,000 drug overdose deaths in the 12-month period ending May, 2021. This record-high spike in overdoses is thought to be primarily a result of pandemic lockdowns and the continuing spread of illicit fentanyl.

National Institute on Drug Abuse director Nora Volkow, MD, told NPR that the overdoses “are driven both by fentanyl and also by methamphetamines" and predicted that the surge of fatalities would continue because of the spread of more dangerous street drugs.

Connecticut this week warned that fentanyl was found in marijuana and is the suspected cause of several near-fatal overdoses in the state. “This is the first lab-confirmed case of marijuana with fentanyl in Connecticut and possibly the first confirmed case in the United States,” said state public health Commissioner Manisha Juthani, MD.

When asked if there is anything giving hope about the future of the drug crisis, PROP co-founder Andrew Koldony, MD, told Axios, “Uh... not really.”

Public health is often depressing. It is also rarely simple. We are not going to arrest, restrict or treat our way out of the drug crisis. Although harm reduction and improved access to addiction services will help, they will not be sufficient to reverse current trends.

The U.S. does not even have good data on the street drug supply. RAND researcher Bryce Pardo, PhD, looking at better and more current data in Canada, sees designer street drugs becoming even more dangerous.

“There is a recent and alarming trend toward more harmful supply of drugs sold in illegal markets in Canada. Consumers in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia buying powder may be at greater risk for exposure to fentanyl mixed with novel benzodiazepines,” Pardo reported in JAMA Psychiatry. “There is a need to improve monitoring and surveillance of drug consumption in the US as markets continue to trend toward more harmful drug mixtures.”

The U.S. also doesn’t have good data on drug deaths. Even the term “overdose” is problematic now. Deaths that are “opioid involved” in toxicological terms are resulting from inadvertent exposure via tainted cocaine and methamphetamine. And although fentanyl and other opioids are still involved in the majority of deaths, there are now more psychostimulant-involved deaths than there were two decades ago.

The U.S. also lacks good data on the people who died, in particular their drug use history, general health status, and other factors thought to affect drug risks and outcomes. It is easy to speculate that the stress and isolation of the pandemic exacerbated existing risks, but it is important to note that suicides did not rise in 2020 when they might have been expected to.

There is no easy policy fix here. Restricting prescription opioids and legalizing cannabis didn’t work. Ideology will not help. Legalizing drugs is a meaningless slogan since neither “drugs” nor “legalization” is well-defined. The same with old narratives and origin stories about the crisis, which may help explain what happened but contribute little about what to do next.

Safe supply is an appealing but problematic notion. There is no obvious way to test illicit substances in human trials. Illicit labs are unlikely to hold back their products any more than illicit cannabis suppliers are going to obey the law. Street drug test kits might help, if only we knew enough about the drugs and their users.

Treatment is similarly challenging. As Kolodny told Axios, “If we really want to see deaths come down in the short run, someone who's opioid addicted has to be able to access treatment more easily than they can buy a bag of heroin or fentanyl.” Though this is an admirable goal, there is no practical way to do it.

And all of this assumes that street users are opioid-addicted. More and more are not, as the increasing levels of death and harm from psychostimulants shows. Further, an increasing number of deaths are “polydrug” deaths involving two or more substances, which makes addressing risks all the more complicated.

But despair is not the appropriate response. The U.S. was facing rapidly rising rates of tobacco-related illness and death for much of the 20th century. But a combination of public health measures has cut the mortality rate from smoking in half since 1990. These measures include stricter laws and regulations, increased costs, and in an unexpected irony, stigmatization of smoking.

Many of the proposed solutions to the drug crisis have been based more on intuition than data. At this point we simply do not know which public health measures are working or how to improve them. What little data we have is often imprecise and years old, and as the crisis accelerates, the importance of granular and timely data grows. Moreover, the measures to date have often been applied piecemeal for short periods, so their real efficacy remains to be determined.

The tragedy of drug deaths cannot be understated, and the potential for far more drug deaths cannot be underestimated. But if the U.S. can improve its understanding of drugs and its response to risks and harms, we needn’t see so many more deaths moving forward.

Roger Chriss lives with Ehlers Danlos syndrome and is a proud member of the Ehlers-Danlos Society. Roger is a technical consultant in Washington state, where he specializes in mathematics and research.