By Roger Chriss, PNN Columnist

The U.S. economy is starting to reopen amid the coronavirus pandemic. It’s still early, but Health and Human Service Secretary Alex Azar told CNN’s “State of the Nation” on Sunday that there has not been an increase in new infections in states that have reopened.

“We are seeing that in places that are opening, we’re not seeing this spike in cases,” Azar said. “We still see spikes in some areas that are, in fact, closed.”

However, over the weekend Texas reported its highest single-day increase in new cases, and Wisconsin saw a record number of new infections.

The coronavirus has become entrenched. CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield tweeted Friday that all 12 forecasting models used by the agency forecast over 100,000 deaths by month’s end.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts over 147,000 American will die by early August. Infectious-disease researchers estimate over a quarter million fatalities by year’s end.

Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told USA Today that “this damn virus is going to keep going until it infects everybody it possibly can.”

Epidemiologist Dr. Johan Giesecke wrote in The Lancet  that "measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future — it will not prevent them."

But even if everyone will eventually be infected, there is little sense in rushing headlong into that future.

Covid-19 is deadly and damaging. The mortality rate of Covid-19 is still uncertain, but an estimate of 1% is common. So a rush toward infecting most people in the U.S. means at least 200 million sick people, the number associated with herd immunity. This means two million deaths, possibly more if the healthcare system is overwhelmed or the virus is more virulent than now believed.

Even if the mortality rate is much lower, there is still considerable disease burden. The Guardian reports that about 1 in 20 people with Covid-19 have a chronic course of illness that lasts for months.

And Covid-19 is more than a respiratory virus impacting only vulnerable adults. CNN reports that it is also causing blood clots and multiple organ failure in young adults, and multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children.  

All of this will cost a lot. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that the average cost of COVID-19 treatment for someone with employer insurance is $9,763. Someone whose treatment has complications may see bills about double that. Hospitals are spending between $6,000 and $8,000 a day on coronavirus patients, meaning an extended hospitalization could cost well over $100,000.  

Slowing the pandemic will buy time to better understand the virus and develop more effective responses to make the future less risky and costly. We already have tools and technologies to make that happen.

First and foremost, social distancing. A new study in Health Affairs reports on the success of strong social distancing measures. Based an analysis from April, government-imposed social distancing reduced the daily infection rate by 5.4% after 1-5 days, 6.8% after 6-10 days, 8.2% after 11-15 days, and 9.1% after 16-20 days. That translates to millions of fewer cases of Covid-19.

Second, hygiene. Yale University researchers looked at the impact of face masks in mitigating the spread of Covid-19. They conservatively estimate the value of each additional mask worn by the public at $3,000 to $6,000.

Third, systematic tracing and tracking of cases. This includes state and federal health measures to identify new cases, track chains of transmission, and alert people who have potentially been exposed. Washington state will require restaurants that reopen to keep customer logs, a simple measure that may help slow the spread of Covid-19.

Last, planning. Society needs to function but cannot just go back to pre-pandemic ways. Instead, staggered work schedules, flextime and telework can lower transmission. Some cities are closing streets to vehicles to make more space for people, who can then dine and shop. Schools are looking at part-time programs and adaptive scheduling to promote safer educational environments. And medical facilities are offering more telehealth and remote services.

There are many ways to slow the spread of Covid-19 and a myriad of benefits to doing so. Society does not need to be sacrificed in the process. Instead, we can adapt. The virus adapted to people, but people can be clever and cooperative enough to outcompete it.

Roger Chriss lives with Ehlers Danlos syndrome and is a proud member of the Ehlers-Danlos Society. Roger is a technical consultant in Washington state, where he specializes in mathematics and research.