By Pat Anson, PNN Editor

Many people with chronic pain strongly believe that rainy or cold weather aggravates their pain. Some even believe they can predict the weather based on their pain levels. 

But the results of a long-term study in the UK – recently published in the journal Digital Medicine -- show that weather conditions have only a modest effect on pain.

Researchers at the University of Manchester led a 15-month study of over 2,600 UK residents who recorded their daily pain levels with a smartphone app. The results were then compared with local weather conditions, based on the GPS locations of the participants’ phones.

Contrary to popular belief, rainfall was not associated with more pain. Results from the Cloudy with a Chance of Pain study showed that humid days were most likely to be painful, followed by days with low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. But the overall effect was modest, even when all three conditions were present.

“The analysis showed that on a damp and windy days with low pressure the chances of experiencing more pain, compared to an average day, was around 20%. This would mean that, if your chances of a painful day on an average weather day were 5 in 100, they would increase to 6 in 100 on a damp and windy day,” said lead author Will Dixon, PhD, Professor of Digital Epidemiology at the University of Manchester.

Dixon and his colleagues believe the study could be used to develop a “pain forecast” for people with chronic pain.

“This would allow people who suffer from chronic pain to plan their activities, completing harder tasks on days predicted to have lower levels of pain. The dataset will also provide information to scientists interested in understanding the mechanisms of pain, which could ultimately open the door to new treatments,” Dixon said.  

A 2017 study by Australian researchers at The George Institute for Global Health also found that damp weather increases pain. But because the symptoms disappeared as soon as the sun came out, researchers believe they could be influenced by psychological factors, not the weather itself. Previous studies on back pain, osteoarthritis and weather at The George Institute had similar findings.

The Greek philosopher Hippocrates in 400 B.C was one of the first to note that changes in the weather can affect pain levels. Although a large body of folklore has reinforced the belief that there is a link between weather and pain, the science behind it is mixed.